The Apple Intelligence system, which was originally scheduled to be released in September, may not be able to meet everyone as scheduled.

Apple Intelligence or delayed

Previously at WWDC, Apple said that Apple Intelligence will be deeply integrated into iOS 18, so the outside world are expected to release in September iOS 18 and iPad OS 18 can experience Apple Intelligence.

But now, according to people familiar with the matter, Apple plans to start rolling out Apple Intelligence to customers only in the October update to iOS 18, which also means that the first iPhone 16 models to be released to consumers this year won't come with Apple Intelligence.

Apple's Apple Intelligence includes a range of features, including a new built-in system-wide writing tool, an upgraded Siri, and deep integration with OpenAI's ChatGPT.

The people familiar with the matter also added that Apple plans to make Apple Intelligence available to software developers for the first time for early testing as early as this week via beta versions of iOS 18.1 and iPadOS 18.1. This is not a common occurrence, as Apple doesn't usually make beta versions of initial releases available for testing by outsiders.

Reports suggest that Apple's move may have been motivated by concerns about the stability of Apple Intelligence's functionality, which in turn prompted them to separate its rollout from the release of the new iOS 18 and iPadOS 18 operating systems.

Apple released the fourth beta of iOS 18.0 to developers last week and expects to complete development by the end of July. Every September, when Apple launches a new iPhone, it comes with a new operating system. Typically, the operating system is completed a few weeks in advance to allow time for installation before the iPhone device leaves the factory.

It's worth noting that even if Apple launches Apple Intelligence in October, it will only be launching a portion of Apple Intelligence's functionality. Apple plans to gradually enrich the Apple Intelligence experience through multiple software updates, a process that could continue through the first half of 2025.

How big is the demand for iPhone replacement with AI help?

The iPhone 16 series is understood to be virtually unchanged in terms of design, so Apple Intelligence is widely expected to give a big boost to sales of the new model.

After the WWDC conference, several analysts have already predicted that the sales of Apple devices are expected to be boosted as a result.

For example, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan mentioned that Apple Intelligence could push Apple to start a multi-year upgrade cycle, including faster replacements and higher average selling prices.

But some analysts are more cautious, saying there are still questions about whether Apple Intelligence will generate demand for replacements.

Noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said last week that while there has been occasional news of increased orders for the iPhone 16 since WWDC, based on recent statements from two of Apple's key suppliers (TSMC and Dali Opto), both hinted that there may not be increased orders for the iPhone 16.

Kuo said that based on his understanding of supplier claims, there are specific suppliers that do see an increase in iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024, but from an EMS/assembly standpoint, orders for the iPhone 16 in the second half of the year haven't changed that much (~87 million units), and are still slightly lower than orders for the iPhone 15 in the same period last year (~91 million units).

He said that TSMC and Dali Optoelectronics and assembly manufacturers, if the order trend is consistent, the trend should be quite informative. As for the increase in iPhone 16 orders for certain manufacturers, it may be related to specific reasons for individual industries or components.

Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that Apple Intelligence will only be available in beta for US users in the second half of the year, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English. Regardless of whether or not Apple Intelligence alone will drive demand for the new iPhone, it may be too optimistic to expect consumers to buy the new iPhone 16 in the second half of the year for the beta version of Apple Intelligence.