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Stocks fall as prospects for Fed rate cut unclear Treasury yields rise

On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell about 1%, and the 10-year yield of U.S. treasury bond bonds hit a four month high.

On Tuesday , the three major stock indexes of the United States fell by about 1%. With the release of strong labor demand data, the 10-year yield of treasury bond bonds hit a new four month high, increasing the possibility of the Federal Reserve postponing interest rate cuts.

At the same time, the US dollar also hit a four month high against key trading currencies, but then fell due to expectations of Japanese intervention hindering the rise of the yen.

Bitcoin also plummeted, dropping 7.5% at one point, as the expected rate cut may not be as fast as expected, hitting risky assets. The US dollar index, which measures the six major currencies of the US dollar, fell 0.21%. The price of gold has reached a new high.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labor, as of February 28th, the number of job opportunities in the United States reached 87.56 million. The revised data from the January Job Vacancies and Labor Mobility Survey (JOLTS) showed 87.48 million job vacancies.

"We are once again in a state of mixed good and bad news, as recent economic indicators, especially today's JOLTS report, have shown a very robust economy," said Russell Price, Chief Economist at Ameriprice Financial in Troy, Michigan.

"When we combine it with the fact that inflation continues to rise, the idea of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates is unlikely."

The MSCI global stock index closed down 0.49%, while the Jones Industrial Average on Wall Street fell 1%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.72%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.95%.

Tesla's quarterly delivery volume has declined for the first time in over four years, lower than Wall Street's expectations, and its stock price has plummeted by 4.9%.

Earlier in Europe, the Pan European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.80%, hitting a new week low. The index hit a historic high during trading. In recent weeks, speculation about an upcoming interest rate cut has prompted investors to purchase risky assets.

With the growth of manufacturing data for the first time since September 2022, and the revised data of personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) for January showing that consumer spending increased in February, the yield of treasury bond bonds rose on Monday.

"When the ISM data rises above the 50th line, it eliminates many people's concerns about recession, and expectations of interest rate cuts may be overturned," said Philip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners in New York.

"The economy is not suitable for interest rate cuts. This confirms our long-standing view that there is no need for interest rate cuts," Colmar added. "Inflation has not given the Federal Reserve a chance to breathe."

The yield of long-term treasury bond climbed to a multi month high, and the benchmark yield of 10-year treasury bond reached 4.405%, the highest level since November 28.

The two-year treasury bond bond yield, which represents the expected interest rate, fell 2.5 basis points to 4.693%.

On the other side of the Atlantic, industrial activity in the Eurozone decreased faster in March than in February due to continuous decline in demand and slowing inflation in Germany. The 10-year German treasury bond fell 1.2 basis points to 2.398%.

The Japanese yen rose 0.03% against the US dollar to 151.57, after falling to 151.79. Since last Wednesday, it has been trading within a narrow range when it hit a 34 year low of 151.975, triggering a threat of increased intervention from Japan.

On Tuesday, the Japanese Chancellor of the Exchequer reiterated that he does not rule out any options to deal with fluctuating exchange rates.

Brent crude oil prices have temporarily exceeded $89 per barrel for the first time since October, as Ukraine's blow to Russia's energy assets poses further risks to oil supply. Ukraine attacked one of Russia's largest refineries on Tuesday.

US crude oil rose $1.44 to $85.15 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose $1.50 to $88.92 per barrel.

Gold hit a new high as traders sought refuge in safe haven assets amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East, largely ignoring the still strong currency and easing expectations for US interest rate cuts.

The spot gold price once reached a historic high of $2,276.89 per ounce. US gold futures rose 1.1% to $2,281.8 per ounce.

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