September 2nd saw international oil prices continue their downward trend in the Asian morning session. This was partly due to the manufacturing data from China, which was lower than expected over the weekend, and partly due to the expectation that OPEC+ will increase production from October.

As of press time, trader quotes indicated that Brent crude futures fell by 56 cents, or 0.7%, to $76.37 per barrel; WTI crude futures fell by 5 cents, or 0.6%, to $73.10 per barrel. Last week, both major crude futures closed lower, with Brent down 0.3% and WTI crude down 1.7%.

On August 31st (last Saturday), according to the National Bureau of Statistics data, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a six-month low and falling below the expected median of 49.5, remaining below the boom-bust line for the fourth consecutive month.

Looking at the scale of enterprises, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, still above the critical point; the PMI for medium and small enterprises was 48.7% and 46.4%, respectively, a decrease of 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

In terms of sub-indices, among the 5 sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new orders index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the critical point.

Specifically, the production index was 49.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production activities;

The new orders index was 48.9%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand; the raw material inventory index was 47.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a reduction in the inventory of main raw materials in manufacturing compared to the previous month;

The employment index was 48.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the prosperity of employment in manufacturing enterprises;

The supplier delivery time index was 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, still below the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of raw materials from suppliers to manufacturing industries continued to extend.

Analysts said that the lower-than-expected PMI released over the weekend intensified concerns that China's economy will not achieve its growth target. Although the Caixin PMI for China (which includes small export-oriented enterprises) on Monday showed signs of recovery in manufacturing activity in August, pessimism about China's demand growth is still emerging.

On the other hand, according to six sources from OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is expected to increase oil production from October. The preliminary plan of eight OPEC+ member countries is to first increase production by 180,000 barrels/day in October as part of a gradual lifting of the 2.2 million barrels/day production cut plan.

In this regard, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said that people are worried that OPEC+ will gradually increase production. However, I believe whether to increase production or not will depend on market prices. If the price of WTI crude oil approaches $80, this situation (of increasing production) will not occur.

In terms of US data, the ISM manufacturing PMI and the final S&P Global PMI will be released on Tuesday, factory orders, JOLTS job openings, trade balance data, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released on Wednesday, and on Thursday, there will be ADP's August employment report, weekly unemployment benefit data, and the ISM service industry PMI.

Currently, the market is focusing on the August non-farm employment report to be released on Friday. Surveys show that the US is expected to add 165,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.2%. The release of this report will directly affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions in September.