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JPMorgan’s President: this year may not cut rates at all

On Thursday, JPMorgan Chase President Daniel Pinto stated that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry as cutting interest rates too early would be "painful" and could lead to an economic recession.

On Thursday, JPMorgan Chase President Daniel Pinto stated at an event in Washington that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates at all this year as inflation remains high.

Pinto stated at the event that the Federal Reserve may need more time to lower interest rates. Due to widespread suspicion that inflation will ease soon, the likelihood of interest rate hikes is "very, very low". He said the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry because cutting interest rates too early would be "painful" and could lead to an economic recession.

Recent economic data shows that inflation in the United States is still more stubborn than many expected at the beginning of this year, making it unlikely for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly.

Pinto's remarks echo those of his boss, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase. In a letter to shareholders earlier this month, Damon stated that sticky inflationary pressures may lead to higher interest rates than market expectations, and the company is prepared to accept interest rates of 2% to 8% or even higher.

The two executives at JPMorgan Chase have repeatedly expressed such "pessimistic" views, which are related to the hawkish voices issued by the Federal Reserve in recent days.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that recent data suggests it may take longer than expected to achieve the target of inflation falling back to 2%. This statement immediately hit the market's expectations for a rate cut.

On Wednesday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Governor Loretta Mester said, "At some point, as our confidence grows, we will begin to normalize policies and return to a less restrictive position, but we don't need to rush to do so." She said that so far this year, inflation rates have remained higher than expected.

Mester's remarks marked her abandonment of her expectations two weeks ago that the Federal Reserve may begin lowering policy rates from the current range of 5.25% -5% later this year.

On Thursday, hawkish official Raphael Bostic even stated that if inflation does not continue to move towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target as he expected, central bank officials will need to consider raising interest rates.

"If inflation stagnates and even starts moving in the opposite direction, away from our goals, I think we have no choice but to deal with it," said Bostek, the current President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, at an event in Miami. He further said, "If today's level of restrictions seems insufficient to complete this task or complete it, then I must remain open to interest rate hikes."

However, Bostic did not finish his sentence. He also stated that if inflation declines faster than he currently expects, he may cut interest rates early to ensure that policies are not overly restrictive. He stated that the risks facing the current economic outlook are "roughly balanced".

At the beginning of this month, the market was still betting that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates for the first time by 25 percentage points at its June meeting, and was optimistic that there would be two more rate cuts later this year. Now, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the market believes that the possibility of the first rate cut in September is the highest, and the possibility of a second rate cut is decreasing.

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