The Trump Deal is strengthening.
With less than 20 days left before the U.S. election (November 5), the Democratic and Republican elections are still evenly matched.In "battlefield states" such as Pennsylvania and Arizona, polls show that Trump and Harris are alternately leading.
There is no anxiety in the political arena. In the market, investors may have finished pricing the next president: the US dollar index rose 2.5% in October, and the volatility during the year turned from negative to positive, which means that the "Trump deal" is strengthening.
According to a recent report by Macquarie strategists, Trump's three core economic policies-raising tariffs, reducing immigration and lowering taxes-will, in theory and practice, be more likely to lead to inflation than Harris's corresponding alternatives.
The Wall Street Journal survey also showed that 68% of the 50 economists surveyed believe that if Trump takes office again, prices will rise faster than during Harris 'administration.This proportion is significantly higher than the 56% in July.
Therefore, the market believes that Trump's policy strategy may cause the Federal Reserve's policy stance to become more "eagle" between 2025 and 2026.The recent surge in the U.S. dollar index is likely to be due to the fact that the market is gradually fulfilling its confidence in Trump's election.
Deutsche Bank strategists said: "We expect the dollar to rise across all currency pairs in the 'red wave'(i.e., a Republican election victory)."The broadest dollar decline may occur in the 'blue wave'(i.e., a Democratic victory in the election), although more limited than the gains possible in the 'red wave.'”
In this case, Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos advised investors to buy the U.S. dollar against the euro, Mexican peso and Korean won.
In addition to the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt, other Trump-related transactions have also changed in the near future.Large U.S. banking stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even Trump's media company DJT have all risen to varying degrees in recent times, with DJT nearly doubling this month.
