August 2nd, ahead of the non-farm data release, gold trading is cautious. Spot gold maintains a narrow range of fluctuations, currently trading near 2,445 USD per ounce.

Yesterday, the gold price continued to rise at the start of the trading day, reaching the highest point since July 18th at 2,462.08 USD per ounce, but fell slightly at the end of the trading day, closing at 2,445.41 USD per ounce.

The gold price was hit and is related to the strengthening of the US dollar. After Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel, the US dollar attracted more risk-averse funds, putting pressure on the gold price. On Thursday, the US dollar index rebounded significantly, closing at 104.34%, with an increase of about 0.28%, which caused the gold price to give back the gains made earlier on Thursday.

The market is assessing the impact of a larger-scale war in the Middle East.

Corpay's Chief Market Strategist Karl Schamotta said, "We are watching the threat of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East, which has increased the risk-avoidance appeal of the US dollar." Schamotta also said, "Although Powell was very dovish at the press conference, the statement released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does indeed sound more balanced."

At present, after Powell reiterated the observation of the sustainability of the labor market, the market is particularly concerned about the non-farm data to be released on Friday.

A related report shows that the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States last week rose to the highest level in 11 months, indicating a softening of the labor market. However, looking at historical data, the number of first-time claims will fluctuate at this time of year.

Specifically, as of the week ending July 27th, the number of people applying for state unemployment benefits increased by 14,000, reaching 249,000 after seasonal adjustment, the highest level since August of last year. Economists had previously predicted that the number of first-time jobless claims would be 236,000.

The number of first-time jobless claims last week broke through the range of 194,000 to 245,000 people this year. The four-week moving average of the number of people applying for benefits, excluding seasonal factors, increased by 2,500 to 238,000.

In addition to the first-time data, the US ADP employment figures for July, released this week, only increased by 122,000 people, far below the 150,000 people estimated by economists. ADP, as a traditional folk forecast report, is known as the "little non-farm."

A series of weak economic data performances are gradually undermining the confidence of US stock investors in a soft economic landing. Because of this, the non-farm data released today will attract attention from all sides.

PNC Financial Senior Economic Advisor Stuart Hoffman said, "Since the comprehensive lockdown in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation of large-scale temporary layoffs carried out by the automotive industry to reorganize equipment has been very different in the past three Julys. From a historical standard, the labor market is still in a strong state, but not as strong as in 2022 and 2023."

Westpac Bank said that due to the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds being below 4%, non-farm employment data may be the decisive factor for how long the current rise in US Treasury bonds can continue. If the data supports the current expectation of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, then the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds may head towards 3.8%.

Market analyst Jeff Cox believes that the US job market in July may cool down due to the gradual slowdown of the economy, and the hurricane Beryl is expected to weaken the employment momentum. However, even if the July non-farm employment report does indeed show a weaker employment situation, it is expected that this decline will only be gradual, consistent with the gentle slowdown that the Federal Reserve wants to promote.

At present, according to the general estimate of Dow Jones, the number of people employed in July will increase by 185,000, lower than the 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%.

Some economists also believe that this report may be optimistic. Goldman Sachs estimates that the Beryl hurricane, which is raging in most areas of Texas (especially Houston), will reduce 15,000 jobs. Goldman Sachs believes that the July non-farm will be closer to 165,000 (previously 206,000). Citigroup's estimated number is even lower - the number of new jobs is 150,000, and the unemployment rate will rise slightly to 4.2%.