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Inflation warming up? U.S. Q1 GDP Growth Below Expectation

The latest data show that the U.S. economic growth may slow further in the future, and the Fed's monetary policy outlook has become more uncertain.

The data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce shows that the annualized growth rate of the USGDP in the first quarter was only 1.6%, significantly lower than the market's expected 2.4%. Consumer spending increased by 2.5%, lower than the previous quarter's 3.3% and the market's expected 3%. Fixed investment and state and local government spending sustained economic growth, but the decline in private inventory investment and an increase in imports weighed on economic performance.

The PCE grew by 3.4% for the quarter, reaching a one-year high, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rose by 3.7%, indicating an increase in inflationary pressure.

Following the release of this report, market reactions turned pessimistic. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by more than 400 points, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose to 4.69%.

It is expected that the US economy will further slow down in the coming quarters, with the possibility of reduced consumer spending. Declining savings rates and persistent inflation pose pressures on consumers. Despite market expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates later this year, the inflationary situation has injected uncertainty into the policy path.

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