Recently, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in a helicopter accident. In response to this news, the commodity markets experienced collective fluctuations, with prices of precious metals such as gold and silver sharply rising, and the crude oil market showing anomalies.

However, even significant political events like these in the Middle East seem unable to disrupt the tranquility of the crude oil market. As of May 23rd, both Brent crude oil futures and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures prices even saw slight declines. Last week, Brent crude oil prices rose by about 1%, marking the first weekly increase in three weeks.

Apart from the Iran plane crash incident, there are also some political risks from Saudi Arabia, which is a major oil-producing country in the Middle East. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was scheduled to visit Japan on Monday but canceled the trip, citing concerns about the health of Saudi King Salman. Foreign media revealed that the 88-year-old King Salman is undergoing treatment for pneumonia.

Nevertheless, many analysts believe that volatility in the crude oil market will be limited in the future. IG Markets analyst Tony Sicamore pointed out that political instability in two key oil-producing countries is affecting the crude oil market, forecasting that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil may rise to $83.5, an increase of about 5% from the current price. He also mentioned that recent stimulus measures taken by China to boost the real estate industry are also one of the factors driving up oil prices.

Sol Cavonik, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, said that despite concerns about King Salman's health, Saudi Arabia's energy strategy will remain consistent under the leadership of the Crown Prince.

Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, also believes that the crude oil market is still fluctuating within a certain range. The market's response to geopolitical events is becoming increasingly tepid, possibly due to OPEC's significant spare capacity, reducing concerns about supply. Without new catalysts, the market will have to wait for further policies from OPEC+ to see significant fluctuations in the crude oil market.

OPEC+ is scheduled to hold a meeting on June 1 to clarify the next phase of its oil production plans.

Last week, as US inflation showed signs of slowing down, expectations of interest rate cuts strengthened again, supporting the prospect of a weaker dollar and boosting oil prices. Additionally, the US government purchased 3.3 million barrels of oil to replenish strategic reserves, also bolstering the market.