Tesla plans to release its first quarter financial report on April 17th, with the first quarter delivery data expected to be released earlier than the financial report and expected to be released in early April. As time approaches, more and more analysts are starting to lower Tesla's delivery expectations for the first quarter.

On March 27th, Citigroup released a research report stating that it has lowered its forecast for Tesla's first quarter delivery from the original forecast of 473,300 vehicles to 429,900 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of only 2%. The US and Chinese markets are expected to deliver 160,000 and 132,000 vehicles respectively, while the European market is expected to deliver 92,000 vehicles.

As a comparison, Tesla delivered approximately 423,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2023.

Citigroup analyst Itay Michaeli pointed out that from the aggressive consensus forecast in the first quarter, Tesla looks very difficult. Mikaeli stated that the buyer's expectation for Tesla's delivery in the first quarter is far lower than the seller's estimate of 460,000 to 470,000 vehicles, and the stock price remains challenging as market expectations remain too high, not only for this year's forecast but also for next year.

Citigroup maintains a "neutral" rating for Tesla and awaits more convincing buying points. Moreover, based on the lowered delivery forecast for the first quarter, Citigroup has also lowered its target price for Tesla from $224 to $196. Citigroup predicts that Tesla will deliver 1.97 million vehicles throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a delivery forecast of 2.2 million vehicles next year.

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi also lowered Tesla's delivery expectations in a research report released on the 26th.

Sacconaghi has lowered Tesla's first quarter delivery forecast from 490,000 vehicles to 426,000 vehicles, and lowered its full year delivery forecast for 2024 from 2.1 million vehicles to below 2 million vehicles.

Sacconaghi stated that the reason for lowering delivery expectations is because Tesla experienced weak demand from China and Europe in the first quarter, as well as production restrictions from the US Model 3.

Compared to Citigroup, Sarkozy holds a more pessimistic attitude towards Tesla. He maintains the rating of Tesla's stock as "underperforming" and lowers Tesla's target price from $150 to $120. As a comparison, Tesla closed at $179.83 on Wednesday (March 27), which means Sarkozy believes there is still about 33% room for a decline in Tesla's stock price.

In addition, UBS also lowered Tesla's first quarter delivery forecast from the previous 466,000 units to 432,000 units last week, and reduced the annual delivery forecast from the previous 2.02 million units to 1.96 million units.

UBS also significantly lowered the target price of Tesla's stock from $225 to $165 and maintained its "neutral" rating.

Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas has also lowered Tesla's delivery forecast for the first quarter, but relatively speaking, he is more optimistic about Tesla's outlook.

In a report released on the 26th, Gianarikas lowered Tesla's delivery forecast for the first quarter from 441,000 vehicles to 420,000 vehicles. But at the same time, he reiterated Tesla's stock price target of $234 and gave the stock a "buy" rating.

Gianarikas wrote in his report, "We believe that most of the negative emotions currently surrounding Tesla are extreme." He also stated that the profit correction for Tesla has been "very bad for some time."

According to FactSet data, Wall Street currently expects Tesla to deliver 471,000 vehicles in the first quarter. However, as analysts continue to lower their expectations, this number is expected to decrease significantly.

In addition, Wall Street currently expects Tesla's earnings per share to be only $2.88 in 2024. Compared to last year's $3.12, it has decreased by more than 7%. Wall Street's general expectation for Tesla's 2024 earnings per share has dropped by over 24% since the end of 2023. Some analysts believe that profits may further decline to around $2.26 per share.

Recent news about Tesla also confirms the market's pessimistic outlook on Tesla's first quarter delivery expectations.

Last week, there were media reports that Tesla was reducing the production time of its Chinese factory from 6.5 days per week to 5 days. This production reduction action began in early March and may continue until April. Moreover, this move was carried out against the backdrop of Tesla's Shanghai factory not yet operating at full capacity.

The report also stated that in the past few months, Tesla's Shanghai factory's exports to Europe have declined, and Tesla's Berlin factory's operating speed is also far below production capacity.

Tesla's reduction in production at its Shanghai factory further indicates that the company is facing the challenge of weak demand in major markets such as China and Europe.

In addition, Tesla has recently announced plans to increase car prices in markets such as the United States, Europe, and China. Raising prices may further suppress market demand, especially in the Chinese market. In China, electric vehicles are undergoing rounds of price wars, and raising prices may turn away some potential Tesla customers.