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Next week's outlook: focus on Fed rate cut expectations and China's economy

U.S. retail sales, labor market data and Fed comments will affect bets on March Fed rate cut。

下周展望:关注美联储降息预期和中国经济

Focus:

  • U.S. retail sales, labor market data and Fed comments will affect bets on March Fed rate cut。
  • Eurozone and UK economy will be watched, economic indicators will determine sentiment on Bank of England and ECB rate cuts。
  • China's economic indicators to influence market risk sentiment on Wednesday。

Dollars

On Tuesday, New York Empire Manufacturing will attract investor interest。Improving manufacturing conditions will support expectations of a soft landing。However, it is worth investors' attention that the US retail sales data for December (released on Wednesday)。

A sharp rise in retail sales could fuel demand-driven inflation and force the Fed to delay a rate cut。

On Thursday, U.S. unemployment claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing data will be watched。Stable labor market and manufacturing conditions will further support the bet on a soft landing。

January Michigan Consumer Confidence Data Will Close for Dollar。An unexpected rise in consumer confidence could indicate an upward trend in consumer spending。

In addition to the numbers, investors must monitor the comments of FOMC members.。FOMC members Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, John Williams, Rafael Bostic and Mary Daley will all speak on the calendar。

Euro

Economic indicators in Germany and the Eurozone, inflation and the ECB will put EUR / USD in the spotlight。

On Monday, Germany's wholesale prices and 2023 GDP figures are worth investors "attention.。EUR / USD could come under pressure if German economy contracts more than expected。However, industrial production and trade data for the euro area also need to be taken into account.。

Eurozone figures show industrial production slumping, but terms of trade improving。However, these figures are unlikely to affect the ECB's policy objectives.。

Finalized German inflation data and German and Eurozone ZEW economic confidence data could have a bigger impact。Upward revisions to preliminary inflation data and improved confidence in the economy could lower bets on a first-quarter ECB rate cut。

On Wednesday, the final euro zone inflation data for December will be of interest to investors.。However, German producer prices also need to be taken into account (Friday)。The upward trend in producer prices may indicate an increase in demand-driven inflation.。

In addition to the numbers, the minutes of the ECB's monetary policy meeting (Thursday) and the ECB's comments will drive the market.。ECB President Christine Lagarde to speak。

Pound Sterling

Labour market data will put the pound in the spotlight on Tuesday。Wage growth remains a problem for the Bank of England。Slower wage growth and rising UK unemployment could fuel bets on first-quarter Bank of England rate cuts。

On Wednesday, UK inflation data for December will also affect expectations of the timing of the Bank of England rate cut.。

However, the retail sales data (Friday) is also worth investors' attention。An upward trend in consumer spending could fuel demand-driven inflation and influence discussions of the Bank of England delaying a rate cut。

Other statistics include property sector data (Thursday), which is likely to have a limited impact on the Bank of England's policy intentions.。

In addition to the numbers, comments from the Bank of England and the Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Thursday) will also drive the market.。

Canadian Dollar

Canadian business outlook survey kicks off Canadian dollar week Monday。Optimistic survey could see Bank of Canada delay rate cut。However, Tuesday's inflation data could be crucial.。Lower-than-expected data could raise bets on first-quarter Bank of Canada rate cut。

On Friday, investors must consider retail sales data。Increased consumer spending could fuel demand-driven inflation and affect the Bank of Canada's policy objectives.。

Other statistics include wholesale sales, housing and RMPI data。However, these data may have limited impact on the Canadian dollar。

AUD

On Tuesday, January's consumer confidence data will affect demand for the Australian dollar。The rising trend in consumer confidence may indicate an increase in consumer spending。Consumer spending could fuel demand-driven inflation and force the RBA to delay rate cuts。

On Thursday, Australian labour market data will also influence short-term trends.。Tight labor market conditions could boost disposable income。on disposable income

Upward trend may fuel consumer spending and demand-driven inflation。

In addition, economic indicators from China need to be considered。China accounts for a third of Australia's exports。Improved economic activity in December could support Australian economy and Aussie dollar。Australia's trade accounts for more than 50% of GDP and trade-related jobs account for 20% of the workforce.。

New Zealand Dollar

On Tuesday, NZIER business confidence data will affect demand for the New Zealand dollar。A boost in confidence could indicate an increase in employment, which is positive for the New Zealand economy。

However, electronic card sales (Wednesday) and business PMI data (Friday) could have a bigger impact.。Better-than-expected data could further delay Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut plan。

Japanese Yen

Inflation data will put yen and Bank of Japan in focus。Friday's data could further lower the bet on the Bank of Japan's shift from negative interest rates。

However, wage growth talks in March remained the focus.。Rising wage growth could offset weaker inflation data, giving the Bank of Japan reason to exit negative interest rates in the second quarter。

Industrial production (Thursday) and machinery orders (Thursday) also need to be taken into account ahead of the inflation data。Weak economic environment may give Bank of Japan more reason to keep interest rates negative。

Investors must also focus on the Bank of Japan's guidance on monetary policy throughout the week.。

RMB

On Wednesday, the Chinese economy will be in focus again。Q4 GDP figures will get investors' attention。However, investors must consider data such as industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and the unemployment rate。The pick-up in economic activity in December could offset the possibility that fourth-quarter GDP figures were lower than expected.。

Beyond the numbers, investors must keep an eye on Beijing's stimulus rhetoric。

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