UBS has released a report stating that as the risk of a US economic recession decreases and US corporate profits grow strongly, the bank has once again raised its year-end target against the S&P 500 index.

The institution now expects the S&P 500 index to reach 5,600 points by the end of 2024, compared to the previous forecast of 5,400 points, which means it may increase by 5.6% compared to the current level of around 5,300 points.

As early as February, UBS had raised its target level against the S&P 500 index, which once again highlighted UBS's strong confidence in the outlook for the US stock market.

The UBS analysis team led by Jonathan Golub wrote in a report, "Since then, the consensus on GDP forecasts for 2024 has risen from 1.6% to 2.4%. At the same time, several key indicators, including economist surveys and the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's financial condition index, have seen a decrease in economic recession and tail risk."

UBS's prediction of 5,600 points is higher than the predictions of other Wall Street institutions. Currently, Wall Street analysts predict a median of 5,300 points for the S&P 500 index.

It is worth noting that the strong performance of the US financial reporting season has sparked more bullish sentiment, as most US companies have clearly exceeded expectations in their first quarter financial reports this year.

UBS stated that although the market generally expects earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 4.1%, the actual quarterly growth rate is 10.6%. In addition, strong expectations from US companies for the second quarter indicate that the market will continue to rise.

UBS has raised its earnings per share forecast for US companies this year from $240 to $245, and its 2025 forecast has also been raised from $255 to $260.

Despite UBS's optimistic attitude, there are still pessimistic voices on Wall Street. Some analysts are still concerned that a potential economic recession may affect the US economy and lead to a decline in the stock market. For example, analyst Gary Shilling believes that a weak labor market could have economic consequences and lead to a 30% drop in the US stock market.