Key points:

• US trade deficit falls to $63.2 billion in November
• Exports fell, imports also fell
• Real goods deficit reduces, cautious optimism advised
• Moderate reduction in trade deficit

In November, the U.S. goods and services deficit decreased slightly to $632 billion, down $1.3 billion from October's revised figure.。This change reflects subtle changes in the value of exports and imports。

Exports and Imports: A Close Look

In November, exports totaled $253.7 billion, $4.8 billion less than in October.。Imports also fell to $316.9 billion, down $6.1 billion from the previous month.。The decrease in the goods deficit, combined with the increase in the services surplus, contributed to the decrease in the overall deficit。

Annual trends and moving averages

To date, the goods and services deficit has decreased by 18% compared to the same period in 2022..4%。This is attributable to a slight increase in exports and a relatively large decrease in imports。The three-month moving average shows an increase in the average value of the goods and services deficit, but a significant year-on-year decrease.。

Detailed sector analysis

In the commodity category, exports of industrial supplies and materials decreased significantly, including significant declines in non-monetary gold, crude oil and organic chemicals。Imports of consumer and industrial goods also declined, with mobile phones, pharmaceutical preparations and other petroleum products contributing to the decline.。

Real goods and country-specific trade balances

In real goods in 2017 dollars, the real goods deficit decreased by 2 in November..7%。It is worth noting that the trade balance with major trading partners has changed。The deficit with the EU and China decreased, while the deficit with Switzerland increased。

Short-term forecast: remain cautiously optimistic

Current trends suggest that the US trade situation is cautiously optimistic。A modest reduction in the overall deficit, coupled with adjustments in exports and imports, suggests a gradually balanced trade environment。However, continued vigilance is required, with particular attention to changes in specific sectors and changes in global trade dynamics。