This week, the global stock market experienced a "Black Monday", not only to investors brought significant losses, but also may affect the results of the U.S. presidential election in November. Some analysts believe that this is undoubtedly bad news for Harris.

Adam Turnquist, chief technical analyst at LPL Financial, analyzed the performance of the U.S. stock market in the three months leading up to Election Day as a predictor of the outcome of the presidential election. In a recent client report, he said that while polls, odds and forecasts can provide valuable insights into the outcome of an election, the data is for informational purposes only. To avoid potential bias, it is advisable to focus on the performance of the market in the three months leading up to Election Day - a cycle that officially begins on Monday, August 5th.

Turnquist noted that since 1928, whenever the S&P 500 performs positively in the three months prior to an election, the incumbent party typically remains in control of the White House in 80 percent of the cases. He further explained that historically, the U.S. stock market performs well in the months leading up to a presidential election, probably because politicians do everything possible to keep investors in a positive mood.

This is supported by Dow Jones data, which shows that in the 32 presidential election years since the index was created, the index has risen 23 times, or 72%, between June and October.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 fell 2.60% and 3.00%, respectively, marking their biggest one-day declines since September 2022. The Nasdaq also fell 3.43% to close at 16,200.08.

Although Black Monday had little to do with Harris, Trump didn't miss the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to mock him. He even called out slogans such as "TRUMP CASH" (TRUMP CASH) and "KAMALA CRASH" (KAMALA CRASH), calling on voters to choose between the two. Previously, Harris was neck-and-neck with his opponents in various polls.

On August 5, Harris officially received the nomination of the Democratic Party's presidential candidate. Beginning Aug. 1, about 4,700 Democratic delegates participated in a five-day online voting process. After about a day and a half, Harris had secured enough delegate votes to lock up the nomination. Voting closed on the evening of the 5th, and Harris's nomination became official.

However, as Turnquist notes, with three months to go, there is no need to worry too much at this point. He noted that the recent spike in the fear index (VIX) probably won't bother investors too much.

Turnquist writes, "August and September are traditionally down months for markets. Investors also need to keep an eye on stock performance between now and Election Day, as this three-month period has an impressive track record for predicting election outcomes."