WTI crude oil prices steady near $82 after 4 weeks of sustained upswing。

On the supply side, OPEC + unexpected production cuts continue to ferment, tightening crude oil supply market。The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report on Friday that additional OPEC + production cuts would reduce global oil supplies by 400,000 bpd by the end of 2023.。Non-OPEC + production increased by 1 million bpd from March to December, but failed to offset a 1.4 million bpd reduction in producer group production.。For the full year, global oil production growth will slow to 1.2 million bpd, compared to 4.6 million bpd in 2022.。Non-OPEC + countries, led by the US and Brazil, will boost production in 2023, with production expected to increase by 1.9 million bpd。OPEC + production expected to fall by 760,000 bpd。

In addition, some media reported that according to the forecast data released by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russian oil and gas exports will actually decline by 6 this year..7%。Russian Energy Minister Sulygiynov has previously said that Russian oil and gas production is expected to decline in both this year.。He said that due to the voluntary reduction of oil production by the Russian side to stabilize the market situation, Russian oil production this year will be slightly lower than the previous year.。The Russian side has overcome the impact of Western price restrictions on Russian oil products and shifted oil and oil products exports to countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East.。

Data from Baker Hughes also showed that the number of U.S. oil and gas rigs, an indicator of future supply, fell for the third week in a row, which also helped boost oil prices.。According to the data, U.S. oil active rigs fell by two last week to 588, the lowest since June 2022, while natural gas active rigs fell by one to 157.。

Reduced crude inventories in Cushing, a major U.S. crude oil storage center, and supply disruptions in Iraqi Kurdistan also continue to exacerbate crude supply tensions。

On the demand side, the IEA's monthly report also said that world oil demand will grow by 2 million bpd to a record 1 million bpd in 2023, mainly due to China's economic recovery..01.9 billion barrels per day, of which aviation fuel demand growth will account for 57% of the total growth in 2023.。

Separately, Asia's largest crude importers are reportedly snapping up spot crude after OPEC + unexpectedly announced production cuts, with refiners from Japan, Thailand to China all aggressively buying spot shipments from June last week, absorbing crude from the Middle East and supporting the region's Dubai benchmark price, and Russian ESPO crude quotes rising month-on-month。

The May-June spot premium for Dubai's benchmark crude rose to 1 per barrel on Wednesday, according to crude oil economist PVM Oil Associates..$27, up from just 83 cents earlier this month。Some analysts say strong demand has driven up spot premiums in recent months。

Overall, crude oil demand may hit a record high, building a bottom for oil prices, boosted by the recovery in global demand this year。Geopolitical uncertainty risks, overlaid with unexpected events, also support the upward movement in oil prices。However, the market still needs to pay attention to the impact of Fed policy on the real economy.。

First, Fed officials are hawking again, and it looks like another 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in May is now a certainty。

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Bostic said another 25 basis point rate hike could give the Fed some confidence that inflation will steadily return to its 2 percent target, ending its tightening cycle。

As of press time, according to CME Fed Watch, the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May is as high as 82.8%。

There have been concerns that while better-than-expected U.S. unemployment data reflect the strong resilience of the U.S. economy, according to the minutes of the Fed's previous meeting, the U.S. is likely to enter a recession later this year, at which point the U.S. economy can afford to continue the aggressive rate hike cycle that began last year.？

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Goolsbee said a recession in the U.S. is certainly possible as the Fed's massive rate hikes over the past year are transmitted across the board to the economy, and he again urged the Fed to be cautious about policy。

If the market performs worse than expected, the U.S. economy, which is back in recession, could weigh on oil prices。

Second, US retail sales and manufacturing output figures for March were weak, suggesting the economy is slowing.。

On the evening of April 14, data released showed that the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States recorded -1% in March, lower than expected -0.40%, the lowest since November last year。Previous value from -0.4% Upgraded to -0.2%。The decline in sales is further evidence that the U.S. economy is cooling as consumers struggle to cope with the impact of interest rate hikes and a year of high inflation。The number of vacancies posted by companies is decreasing, hiring, while holding steady, has slowed, and layoffs are on the rise.。

In addition, economists are closely watching whether banks will reduce lending after the collapse of two large banks last month。Many smaller banks have their deposits going to larger banks, which could force them to reduce lending to consumers and businesses, further weakening growth.。

Import prices slipped 0 in February, according to a Labor Department report.After 2%, it fell 0 again in March..6%。This led to a sharp drop in import prices in the 12 months to March 4.6%, the largest year-on-year decline since May 2020。Manufacturing production rose 0 percent in February, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve..After 6%, it fell by 0 in March..5%。Among them, motor vehicle production fell by 1.5% is not a good sign.。

U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March as consumers cut back on buying cars and other commodities, agencies said, suggesting the economy lost momentum at the end of the first quarter as interest rates rose。The pullback in retail sales was largely attributed to the Federal Reserve's year-long move to raise interest rates, a move to slow inflation by cooling domestic demand.。Reports last week showed job growth and service sector activity slowed in March, while manufacturing continued to slump.。

As of press time, WTI crude oil continued to fluctuate in a narrow range during the day, falling slightly by 0.22%, reported 82.42 USD。