Insiders have revealed that Apple is developing a foldable iPhone, which is expected to be released as early as 2026. In recent years, Apple has been in discussions with Asian suppliers about the manufacturing of related components.

The phone is reported to feature a "clamshell design" similar to Samsung's Galaxy Z Flip, released in 2020. However, it is not uncommon for Apple to cancel projects during the development stage, so it remains uncertain whether the foldable phone will be released. If it does launch, it will represent one of the biggest hardware design revolutions in iPhone history.

Long-Term Development of Foldable iPhone

Since 2024, Apple has been working on a vertically foldable smartphone with dimensions similar to current iPhones when unfolded, while continuously applying for patents related to foldable products.

According to the patent list published by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), Apple recently obtained a design patent for the foldable iPhone, focusing on improving the durability of the foldable screen. The patent explores two approaches to enhance the screen's durability: reducing the thickness of the glass in the fold and bend areas or increasing the thickness of other parts of the screen.

Reports indicate that Apple has also created an internal codename—V68—for the foldable phone project, suggesting that the manufacturing process is underway. Apple plans to produce two models of different sizes. Sources say that a typical iPhone model usually takes about 24 months from start to finish, but the foldable iPhone may take longer.

The foldable smartphone equipped with AI features is expected to stimulate market demand. Facing intense competition from Samsung and Huawei, Apple has been under pressure.

In early July this year, Samsung Electronics launched its latest foldable smartphones globally—the Galaxy Z Fold6 and Galaxy Z Flip6. These two phones are the first devices equipped with Galaxy AI technology, and Samsung hopes this innovative feature will significantly boost sales.

Analysts point out that with the introduction of AI features, Apple is expected to enter a replacement cycle in 2025. According to CIRP's survey report, up to 71% of iPhone users have used their old devices for more than two years over the past year, compared to 63% in 2020.

Delayed replacement demand is expected to gradually release in the second half of this year and next year. Additionally, the official introduction of Apple's AI features may attract more users looking to upgrade to devices with AI capabilities.

In terms of software, Apple's first generative AI model, Apple Intelligence, was unveiled in June this year and can only be used on the iPhone 15 Pro or higher models. Regarding appearance, it is anticipated that Apple will release a slim version of the iPhone 17 Slim in 2025.

Surge in Foldable Phone Sales

According to TrendForce data, foldable phone sales have continued to grow, with global shipments reaching 15.9 million units in 2023, a 25% increase year-on-year, accounting for approximately 1.4% of the smartphone market.

The report shows that although Samsung's market share of foldable screen models dropped from 80% in 2022 to below 70% in 2023, it still leads in foldable screen shipments. In 2023, Huawei's foldable screen shipments rose to 12%, while brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo maintained market shares below 10%.

Additionally, IDC data shows that global foldable phone shipments were 1.9473 million units in 2020 (penetration rate 0.14%), increasing to 18.1 million units in 2023 (penetration rate 2.14%). Shipments are expected to reach 45.7 million units by 2028, with a foldable phone penetration rate likely to reach 3.65%. The Chinese foldable phone market continues to grow, with shipments reaching 1.86 million units in Q1 2024, an 83% increase year-on-year, and a penetration rate of 2.68%.

According to the latest report from market research firm Counterpoint Research, the global foldable smartphone market grew 49% year-on-year in Q1 2024, marking the highest growth rate in six quarters. Huawei surpassed Samsung to become the leading vendor in terms of quarterly shipments.

Specifically, the top ten vendors by shipment volume in Q1 were Huawei, Samsung, Honor, and Motorola, with market shares of 35%, 23%, 12%, and 11%, respectively. In terms of year-on-year shipment changes, Huawei grew by 257%, Samsung declined by 42%, Honor increased by 460%, and Motorola grew by 1473%. Huawei's previously released foldable devices only included LTE models, but in Q1 2024, the proportion of Huawei's 5G foldable screen devices surged to 84%.