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Super product cycle is coming?Apple shares surge to overtake Nvidia to become global Top 2 again

Apple's stock price closed at $207.15 on Tuesday, up 7.3%, reaching a new high since December last year. Apple's surge also helped it regain its title of "second in global market value" from Nvidia.

On Monday, Apple announced the launch of "Apple Intelligence", which is a long-awaited attempt by Apple to enter the field of generative artificial intelligence. The company stated that Apple Intelligence will be integrated into its hardware and software products, from iPhone and Mac to email, messaging, and photos.

On the second day after Apple announced its artificial intelligence strategy, its stock price hit a historic high.

Apple's stock price closed at $207.15 on Tuesday, up 7.3%, reaching a new high since December last year. On that day, Apple's market value surged by $215 billion, marking the largest daily increase in the company's history and also the third largest daily increase for a US company.

Apple's surge also helped it regain its title of "second in global market value" from Nvidia. As of Tuesday's close, Apple's market value reached $3.18 trillion, second only to Microsoft's $3.22 trillion and higher than Nvidia's $2.97 trillion.

It is worth noting that before and after Apple's WWDC keynote speech on Monday, the stock price of Apple showed a downward trend, closing down nearly 2% on Monday. Some people believe that the stock’s initial negative reaction wasn’t so much about a lack of AI features as much as it was about a lack of anything surprising that stood to “break new ground”.

But just one day later, the market showed great interest in Apple's AI strategy. This may be related to Wall Street's widespread optimism about Apple's AI strategy.

Apple has previously stated that Apple Intelligence is only applicable to iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max and subsequent new models. Therefore, Wall Street analysts widely believe that Apple's AI strategy will help drive users to switch models, thereby driving sales revenue growth.

Previously, due to concerns about slowing demand for iPhones, Apple's performance at the beginning of the year was lackluster, but the company's stock price has risen by over 15% in the past two months. Several analysts have indicated that the next round of iPhone upgrade cycle may be approaching.

DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria wrote in a research report, "The key is that this feature is only backwards compatible with the iPhone 15 Pro... This means it may bring an urgently needed iPhone upgrade cycle." Luria still believes that the product upgrade cycle will occur in the coming months and quarters.

It is estimated that only 5% of the total iPhone users currently own the iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max models.

"Apple's stock price has remained stable because its revenue has not increased," Luria said. "Now, we believe that this will accelerate Apple's overall growth rate from low single digits to medium single digits, or even high single digits, in the next one or two years. This is what drives Apple's stock price up."

Luria has raised Apple's rating from "neutral" to "buy" and raised the target price of the stock from $200 to $230. He stated that this target price is based on his forecast of Apple's 2025 earnings at a price to earnings ratio of 30 times.

Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes wrote in a research report, "We now have a stronger belief in our super cycle theory, which could even lead to iPhone revenue growth of about 20% in two years."

Reitzes pointed out that the market generally expects Apple's iPhone revenue to increase by 4% in the fiscal year 2025 and 2% in the fiscal year 2026. Reitzes rated Apple stock as "buy" with a target price of $227.

The analyst's inference is not unreasonable, as some mobile phone manufacturers have already tasted the sweetness of artificial intelligence.

According to Counterpoint Research, the Samsung Galaxy S24 series is equipped with artificial intelligence features supported by Google models. Within three weeks of its launch, the model's sales were 8% higher than the previous generation, with growth rates in the US market even around 15%.

Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri pointed out that for every 1% of old iPhone users upgrading their phones to new models, Apple's earnings per share are expected to increase by 20 cents.

Pajjuri's rating of Apple's stock is better than the overall market.

Pajjuri also pointed out, "Apple may expand its availability in mainstream models through the iPhone 16, although we expect performance differences to still contribute to the sales of Pro models."

JPMorgan Chase senior analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote in a report to clients on Monday, "Based on our experience with consumer surveys of previous generations of iPhones, the hardware upgrade cycle is more driven by a series of feature upgrades of various applications, which will basically provide reasons for upgrades in the coming years."

Chatterjee added, "The AI features released on Mac, iPad, and iPhone will support upgrade cycles for all devices."

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