January 5 (Friday) Asian morning market, spot gold shock fell。

Market Review

January 4 (Thursday), the United States employment data exceeded expectations, to help the dollar to maintain the recent rise, spot gold, although under pressure, but can still maintain the price of $2040 / ounce near。By yesterday's close, gold prices had stabilized at 2,042.$79, up 0 on the day.1%。

Spot gold prices down 0 today as of press time.13%, reported 2041.$81 / oz; dollar index up 0 on day.19% at 102.62。

important news

l U.S. employment data exceeds expectations: U.S. Automated Data Processing Corporation (ADP) data released on January 4, U.S. ADP employment increased by 16 in December 2023.40,000, a new high since August 2023, expected 11.50,000, previous value 10.30,000 people。

l Red Sea crisis intensifies: global freighter capacity is falling as the Red Sea crisis has forced several shipping companies to divert, and spot freight rates for container shipping between Asia, Europe and the United States are climbing.。Freight booking and payment platform Freightos Local said late Wednesday that spot freight rates for shipments of 40-foot containers from Asia to Northern Europe have topped $4,000, up 173% from before the Red Sea crisis fermented in the middle of last month.。

l Markets focus on US December non-farm payrolls data: as ADP data far exceeds expectations, markets need to focus on more jobs data to determine the Fed's future interest rate path。The market now expects U.S. nonfarm payrolls to fall back to 16 in December..80,000, expected to be 19.90,000 people reduced by 3.10,000。

Saudi Arabia: Maaden announced Thursday the discovery of several gold deposits south of the production mine Mansourah Massarah, indicating the region's ability to expand gold production.。

l CME "Fed Watch": Fed keeps rates at 5 in February.25% -5.The probability of the 50% interval being constant is 93.3%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%。The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March next year is 35.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut of 60.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut of 4.2%。

Technical analysis

Rémy GAUSSENS, director of research at TRADING CENTRAL, said that on the 30-minute line, spot gold is expected to rise restrictively during the day, with a technical review of gold prices at 2036..A supportive bottom is formed near 00, which will bring stability to the trend in the short term。

Trading Strategy: In 2036.00 above, bullish, target price 2049.00, then 2056.00; alternative strategy: in 2036.00, bearish, target price set at 2031.00, then 2026.00。Support level: 2031.00 ， 2026.00; resistance level: 2049.00, 2056.00。

This week's important schedule

Tuesday, January 2

04: 00 Eurozone December Manufacturing PMI Final Value

04: 30 UK December Manufacturing PMI

09: 45 US December Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Value

10: 00 Monthly Rate of US Construction Expenditure in November

 

Wednesday, January 3

10: 00 US December ISM Manufacturing PMI

10: 00 US November JOLTs Job Vacancies

16: 30 US API Crude Oil Inventory for Week to December 29

20: 45 China's December Caixin Services PMI.

 

Thursday 4th January

04: 00 Eurozone December Services PMI Final Value

04: 30 UK November Central Bank Mortgage Permit.

04: 30 UK December Services PMI

07: 30 U.S. December Challenger Corporate Layoffs

08: 15 U.S. ADP Employment in December

08: 30 U.S. to December 30 Initial jobless claims for the week

09: 45 US December Markit Services PMI Final Value

11: 00 US to December 29 week EIA crude oil inventories

11: 00 U.S. to December 29 Week EIA Oklahoma Cushing Crude Oil Inventories

11: 00 U.S. to December 29 Week EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory

 

Friday, January 5

05: 00 Eurozone December CPI Initial Annual Rate

05: 00 Eurozone December CPI Monthly Rate

05: 00 Eurozone November PPI Monthly Rate

08: 30 U.S. Unemployment Rate in December

08: 30 US non-farm payrolls after December quarter adjustment

10: 00 US December ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

10: 00 U.S. November Factory Orders Monthly Rate

13: 00 Total number of oil rigs for the week from the United States to January 5

 

* * The above schedule is US Eastern Time (UTC-05: 00) * *