On April 8, 2025, the global market was still in the shock recovery stage after experiencing a panic selling triggered by Trump's tariff threat in late March.The S & P 500 index fell 0.23% during the year, the Dow Jones index widened to 0.91%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose slightly by 0.10%, reflecting the divergence and contradiction in market sentiment.Against this background, Goldman Sachs chief strategist Josh Schiffrin's shift from bearish on risky assets to recommending opening positions in batches has attracted widespread market attention.This view not only echoes Goldman Sachs 'previously released 2025 outlook report, but also reveals the deep game logic and potential opportunities in the current market.

The logic of Goldman Sachs 'turn: the trade-off between short-term risks and long-term values

Schiffrin's bullish outlook is not blindly optimistic. Its core logic lies in in-depth analysis of market cycles and policy-driven factors.On the one hand, he believes that the current market downturn stems from the short-term impact of geopolitics and policy uncertainty. For example, Trump's tariff threats against Iran and Russia directly triggered a sell-off in technology stocks.However, such shocks are often emotional, and prices may return to fundamentals as policies are implemented or markets digest expectations.On the other hand, Goldman Sachs emphasized in its 2025 outlook report that the probability of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy is high, and corporate earnings growth, the start of the interest-rate cut cycle and the potential promotion of Trump's tax cuts provide long-term support for risky assets.InvalidParameterValue

This short-term and long-term contradiction is precisely the source of current market differences.For example, although global stock markets fell sharply in March due to Trump's remarks, the S & P 500 index still recorded a 23.3% increase in 2024. Technology stocks performed particularly strongly throughout the year, and the market value of the "Big Seven" continued to expand.Goldman Sachs predicts that the S & P 500 index is expected to rise to 6500 points in 2025. This target implies room for growth of 9.3%. Its core assumption is corporate earnings growth rather than valuation expansion.Schiffrin's proposed "batch opening" strategy is essentially a compromise on market volatility-recognizing short-term risks while capturing a long-term value window.

Structural opportunities: Rebalancing between interest-rate sensitive assets and technology stocks

Goldman's turn is not an isolated event; behind it is a structural revaluation of specific asset classes.First, interest-rate sensitive assets (such as real estate trust funds REITs and utility stocks) continue to be favored in the face of expectations of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.Since the Federal Reserve launched interest rate cuts in September 2024, the market generally expects the easing policy to continue in 2025, which provides a favorable environment for low financing costs and high-dividend assets.For example, REITs generally show greater cash flow stability during low interest rates cycles, while utility stocks have become important destinations for safe-haven funds because of their defensive characteristics.InvalidParameterValue

Second, the long-term logic of technology stocks has not been disrupted by short-term selling.Although the Nasdaq index suffered a setback in March, it still rose by 28.64% throughout 2024. The AI technology revolution (such as the explosion in chip demand from Nvidia and Broadcom) and digital transformation are still the core driving forces.Goldman Sachs pointed out that AI-related revenue has shown multiple growth in some corporate financial reports, and the demand for customized chips and cloud computing infrastructure will continue to push up the industry ceiling.In addition, the potential support of Trump's policies for domestic technology companies (such as tax cuts and deregulation) may further consolidate their market position.InvalidParameterValue

However, investors need to be wary of the risk of valuation differentiation.The current P/E ratio of the S & P 500 index is 21.9 times, significantly higher than the historical average. The high valuation of technology stocks relies particularly on the sustainability of earnings growth.If inflation rebounds or interest rates fall less than expected, some companies lacking cash flow support may face drastic adjustments.

Potential risks: Policy uncertainty and liquidity traps

Despite the positive signals from Goldman Sachs 'turn, the market still faces multiple tail risks.First and foremost is the unpredictability of Trump's policies.The tariff threat at the end of March is only the prelude. If "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented, the average tariff rate in the United States may rise to 15%, which in turn will push up core PCE inflation to 3.5% and drag down GDP growth.This policy spillover effect not only affects corporate profits, but may also trigger a secondary impact on global supply chains.InvalidParameterValue

Second, the game between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and inflation remains a key variable.Although the market expects to cut interest rates at most twice in 2025, if inflation rises again due to rising energy prices or wages, the Fed may be forced to suspend easing or even shift to tightening.Historical experience shows that the shift in monetary policy often triggers violent market fluctuations. For example, the aggressive interest rate hike cycle in 2022 led to the halving of the valuation of technology stocks.InvalidParameterValue

In addition, liquidity risks in private credit and private equity markets cannot be ignored.The Goldman Sachs report mentioned that there is an imbalance between supply and demand in the private credit sector. Falling interest rates may aggravate the narrowing of interest rates, and highly valued private equity targets may face liquidity pressure when exiting.These potential risks remind investors to strengthen the defensive allocation of their portfolios (such as gold, TIPS) to hedge against volatility while chasing returns.

Strategic Enlightenment: Diversification and Dynamic Adjustment

Faced with complex environments, Goldman Sachs 'advice can be boiled down to "flexible configuration, both offensive and defensive."First, in the stock field, it is recommended to pay attention to the elasticity of small and medium-cap stocks.Historical data shows that in the early stages of the interest-rate cut cycle, small and medium-cap stocks tend to outperform the broader market due to their sensitivity to financing costs, and the tilt of Trump's policies towards local companies may further amplify this effect.Second, the bond market needs to focus on high-quality credit bonds.Investment-grade bonds have both benefits and security during the interest rate downward cycle, while segments such as green bonds benefit from ESG investment trends.InvalidParameterValue

In addition, Schiffrin's "sell imaginary put options" strategy is essentially to use the market volatility premium to obtain returns. This tool is particularly effective when the VIX index is running high.For ordinary investors, participating in such strategies through ETFs or structured products can enhance portfolio returns while controlling risk.InvalidParameterValue