Recently, the volatility of the U.S. stock market has contrasted sharply with the rapid rise in interest rates, triggering extensive discussions in the market on the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.In this context, the Goldman Sachs strategist team issued a report stating that although historical data shows that interest rate fluctuations have a significant impact on stock prices, for large U.S. companies, the direct impact of interest rate fluctuations on their earnings may be relatively limited.

Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin pointed out in a report on January 17 that the recent decline in the U.S. stock market is basically consistent with the trend of rising interest rates, but in the coming months, earnings growth rather than valuation changes will become the main driver of stock market returns.This view reflects the market's continued attention to economic fundamentals. Especially in the context of the current stronger-than-expected economic data, investors are more concerned about the sustainability of corporate profits rather than simply valuation adjustments.

From the data point of view, the S & P 500 index fell by about 3% from early December 2024 to mid-January 2025, while the nominal yield on 10-year U.S. bonds rose by 64 basis points during the same period to a high of 4.8%, and the real yield rose by 43 basis points.This reverse relationship between interest rates and the stock market is not uncommon in history, but Goldman Sachs believes that higher interest rates have little direct impact on earnings per share of the S & P 500.For higher interest rates to have a substantial impact on earnings prospects, economic growth must be limited by tightening the financial environment.

Goldman Sachs 'view is also supported by some market data.Based on historical data, the S & P 500's earnings per share (EPS) has remained largely consistent with the growth of U.S. broad money supply (M2) over the past 65 years.In addition, corporate profits also show a strong correlation with nominal GDP growth, which indicates that corporate profitability is more affected by the macroeconomic environment than simply interest rate fluctuations.

In addition, interest rate strategists at Goldman Sachs predict that as inflation slows further, the Federal Reserve may gradually cut interest rates in 2025, and it is expected that the nominal yield on 10-year U.S. bonds will fall to 4.4% by the end of the year.This forecast reflects market expectations for inflation and economic growth prospects.Although the current inflation level is still in a moderate decline stage, the market's confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is growing.However, the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments still face many uncertainties. For example, the Trump administration's fiscal and trade policies may have a complex impact on inflation and economic growth.

From a more macro perspective, changes in the global economic and financial environment have also had a profound impact on U.S. stock markets and interest rates.In 2024, the global economy will continue its weak recovery after the epidemic, inflationary pressures will be significantly eased, and international trade will pick up.In this context, the volatility of the U.S. stock market is not only affected by changes in domestic policies and interest rates, but also restricted by the global financial environment.Goldman Sachs pointed out that continued higher-than-expected interest rates may have a certain impact on earnings and valuation multiples, but this impact is more achieved through the transmission mechanism of the macroeconomic environment.