Recently, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said that he still believes that the probability of a soft landing of the US economy is about 35% to 40%, so the possibility of the US facing a recession is still very high.

Dimon pointed out that the market faces many uncertainties, and factors such as geopolitics, real estate, fiscal deficits, spending, quantitative tightening and elections have caused a lot of concerns in the market.

As the leader of the largest bank in the United States, Dimon is one of the most respected people on Wall Street. Since 2022, he has been warning that the economy may face a severe shock. However, so far, the performance of the US economy has exceeded Dimon's expectations. He still believes that the United States is not in recession at present, despite the increase in default rates among credit card borrowers.

Dimon added that he is skeptical about whether the Federal Reserve can reduce inflation to its 2% target due to the future green economy and increased military spending.

Bruce Kasman, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, released a report estimating that the probability of the US economy falling into recession by the end of the year is 35%, higher than the 25% predicted at the beginning of last month. The team maintained its forecast of a 45% chance of a U.S. recession in the second half of 2025.

Fears of a recession have led to a sharp drop in U.S. stocks recently, with the S&P 500 falling 3% on Monday, its biggest one-day drop in nearly two years.

However, some economists are more optimistic about the economic outlook, believing that a soft landing is more likely than a recession.

Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi recently said he believes the most likely scenario is that the economy avoids a recession and achieves a soft landing. Wells Fargo Chief Economist Jay Bryson also stuck to his base case forecast of a soft landing.