Dollars

On Monday, June 17th, the New York Empire Manufacturing Index will become the focus. If the data unexpectedly drops, it may affect investors' expectations for an economic soft landing.

On June 18th (Tuesday), retail sales data for May will attract investor attention. If retail sales data exceeds expectations, it may affect investors' bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in September.

On June 20th (Thursday), data on US unemployment claims will be released. If the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits continues to increase, it will indicate a deterioration of the macroeconomic environment. A weak labor market may affect wage growth and reduce disposable income, while a decrease in disposable income may affect consumer spending, thereby suppressing demand driven inflation.

Investors also need to pay attention to the June Private Sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data released on Friday, June 21st. The service sector PMI will have a greater impact on the buying sentiment of the US dollar, as the service sector accounts for over 70% of the US economy and has a significant impact on inflation. However, investors should pay attention to various sub indicators, including employment and prices.

In addition to data, investors should also pay attention to the speeches of members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC). It is expected that FOMC members Austan Goolsbee (Tuesday) and Thomas Barkin (Thursday) will give speeches, and any comments on inflation and interest rate paths may trigger market volatility.

Euro

On Monday, Eurozone wage growth and consumer inflation expectations will affect the buying demand for the EUR/USD.

Lower wage growth data may increase investors' expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut in July. A slowdown in wage growth will reduce disposable income and consumer purchasing power. In addition, the decrease in consumer inflation expectations will increase the bet on a rate cut in July.

On Tuesday, the final inflation data for the eurozone and the economic sentiment indices for Germany and the eurozone will be monitored. If the ZEW economic sentiment index is better than expected, it will support the demand for Euro buying. However, the downward adjustment of inflation data may have a greater impact on the euro as it will increase expectations of a rate cut in July.

On Thursday, the German Producer Price Index and Eurozone Consumer Confidence data are worth paying attention to. If producer prices are higher than expected, it will indicate an improvement in the demand environment. Producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices. Rising consumer confidence may also affect the interest rate path of the European Central Bank and the short-term trend of the euro against the US dollar.

On Friday, preliminary private sector PMI data from France, Germany, and the eurozone will affect the demand for euro buying. If the service sector PMI data is weaker than expected, it may increase investors' expectations for the European Central Bank's interest rate cut in July. Investors should pay attention to sub indicators including input prices.

In addition, investors should pay attention to the speeches of European Central Bank officials. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (Friday) and Chief Economist Philip Lane (Tuesday and Friday) will deliver speeches. Other members of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank will also give speeches from Tuesday to Friday.

Pound

On Wednesday, June 19th, the UK May inflation data will focus on the pound and the Bank of England (BoE). If the inflation data falls below expectations, it will increase investors' expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cut in August. It is expected that the Bank of England will maintain its current policies on Thursday, so the minutes of the monetary policy meeting will be more closely watched.

On Friday, UK retail sales and private sector PMI data will affect pound buying demand. If retail sales and service industry activity rebound, it may lower market expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cut in the summer.

UK retail sales and private sector PMI data will affect sterling buying demand on Friday, June 21。A pick-up in retail sales and service sector activity could reduce expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in the summer。

CAD

Canadian real estate data may affect the buying demand for the Canadian dollar. Although the real estate industry accounts for less than 10% of the Canadian economy, the performance of the real estate market may affect consumer confidence and spending.

However, the April retail sales data released on Friday had a greater impact on the interest rate paths of the Canadian dollar and the Bank of Canada. If the retail sales data is higher than expected, it may lower the market's bet on another rate cut in the near future.

In addition, investors also need to pay attention to the trend of oil prices and supply and demand dynamics.

AUD

On Monday, Australian labor market data and consumer inflation expectations will affect the demand for Australian dollar buying. If consumer inflation expectations decrease and the labor market is weak, it may increase investors' bets on the Reserve of Australia (RBA) rate cut in 2024.

On Tuesday, the RBA's interest rate decision and press conference will affect the buying demand for AUD/USD. Economists expect the RBA to maintain monetary policy unchanged. Unless there are unexpected circumstances, the press conference will receive more attention. Investors should pay attention to comments on the Australian labor market, inflation, and monetary policy.

On Friday, preliminary private sector PMI data in Australia also needs attention. The service sector PMI will have a greater impact on the Australian dollar against the US dollar, as the service sector accounts for over 60% of the Australian economy. In addition, investors should pay attention to sub indicators including input prices and employment.

New Zealand Dollar

On Thursday, New Zealand's first quarter GDP and second quarter consumer confidence data will affect buying demand for NZD/USD. If GDP data is better than expected and consumer confidence rises, it may cause the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to maintain a wait-and-see attitude towards monetary policy.

On Friday, credit card consumption data will be released. If consumer spending decreases, it may suppress demand driven inflation and increase market bets on recent RBNZ rate cuts.

Japanese Yen

On Monday, Japanese machinery order data will make the yen the focus. If there is a significant decline in machinery orders, it may indicate a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment, forcing the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term.

On Wednesday, May trade data will provide the market with further understanding of the demand environment. Exports contributed to the economic contraction in the first quarter of 2024. If exports exceed expectations, it may paint a more optimistic picture for the Japanese economy.

In addition, the inflation and private sector PMI data released on Friday also need attention. The Bank of Japan hopes that the service industry can drive demand driven inflationary pressures. If the PMI of the service industry drops significantly and inflation data is weak, it may affect investors' expectations for a recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

China

On Monday, China's industrial production, fixed assets investment, retail sales and unemployment rate data will affect market risk sentiment. Unless the unemployment rate unexpectedly rises, retail sales and industrial production data will have a greater impact on market risk appetite.

In addition to data, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) will also be the focus. On Monday, PBoC will announce the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate, followed by setting the loan market quoted rate (LPR) on Thursday. If the one-year MLF and LPR are unexpectedly lowered, it may increase investors' demand for risky assets.