On November 22, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) made a sudden statement on its website without warning, and the 187th OPEC General Assembly, the 51st meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) and the 36th OPEC and Non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM), originally scheduled for November 25-26, were postponed to November 30.。

Refusing to Cut Production Angola, Nigeria Hard Hard Saudi Arabia

The market had expected that OPEC + would announce further production cuts at the meeting, and international oil prices had also risen sharply.。Sources say Saudi Arabia will formally announce at this meeting that it will extend its unilateral production cut of 1 million barrels per day to prop up faltering oil prices.。Saudi Arabia has also consistently signaled to other members of OPEC + that it is joining the production cut camp。

According to various sources, the OPEC + meeting was postponed because two African oil producers, Angola and Nigeria, expressed dissatisfaction with the lower capacity targets imposed on them by the remaining stronger producers in OPEC +, and OPEC + needed additional time to seek negotiations.。

Back in June, Africa's oil producers had their differences with major OPEC + countries such as Saudi Arabia.。At the time, Angola, Congo and Nigeria had to accept cuts to their full-year 2024 crude oil export targets under the threat of Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman.。

The commentary said that due to the lack of investment, intermittent operations and aging oil fields in Africa in recent years, the life of African crude oil exporters is not easy, and their voice in the OPEC + organization is also decreasing.。

Affected by the postponement of the meeting, WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil continued to fall, the intraday once fell about 5%。At present, oil-producing countries are facing an increasingly fragile oil price situation, since the peak in September, Brent oil prices have fallen by nearly 20%。Saudi Arabia's unilateral 1 million bpd production cut is widely expected to be extended until the first quarter of next year, but self-sacrificing production is already costly for Saudi Arabia, which has to seek support from OPEC + other partners to stabilize oil prices。

In addition to the "sudden rebellion" in Angola and Nigeria, another concern at the meeting was the potential increase in production in the UAE.。As part of the June agreement, the UAE had been promised a small increase in production in January 2024 to deploy the recently added capacity.。But in light of the current weak oil price situation, Abu Dhabi may also be under pressure to abandon production demand to boost the market。

International crude oil early next year or oversupply

Looking ahead, if the OPEC + meeting fails to reach an agreement on next year's production, the global crude oil market will be in a precarious position.。The International Energy Agency has stated that global demand for crude oil has slowed considerably, while continued growth in oil production from producers such as the United States and Guyana will lead to a return to surplus in world markets early next year。

In addition, with the easing of U.S. sanctions, Iran's crude oil supplies have recovered, coupled with surprisingly stable Russian oil exports, analysts say there is plenty of room for crude oil prices to fall further.。

For this meeting postponement event, New York Piper Sandler (Piper Sandler & Co..) Jan Stuart, a global energy economist, said: "Changing a meeting like this is simply a big deal.。"You won't do it easily.。"

SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said the OPEC + meeting "will be a painful discussion": now OPEC + must send a strong signal at the upcoming meeting。I think it's going to be a painful discussion that the Saudis are going to ask Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE to cut production even further。

Pierre Andurand, a prominent oil trader and founder of Andurand Capital Management, also said in an interview that demand growth is very strong, but supply is much more than expected, so OPEC + needs to cut production.。

Andurand also said: "Saudi Arabia may want other countries to cut production, this negotiation will not be easy."。"