Beijing time on December 20, the international oil price day to maintain consolidation。Cloth oil now reported 79.$39 / bbl, WTI crude at 74.$12 / barrel。

Analysts expect limited impact on oil prices from multinational action

Affected by the Red Sea crisis, Tuesday cloth oil, WTI crude oil both rose more than 1%, continuing the previous trading day's rally, the daily level recorded five consecutive positive。

Among them, WTI January crude oil futures settlement price closed up 0.$97 a barrel, up 1.34% at 73.$44 a barrel, the highest level in more than two weeks。Brent February crude oil futures closed up 1.$28 a barrel, up 1.64%, closed at 79.$23 / bbl, the highest level since December 1; SSE crude futures 2402 contract closed up 0.41% at 561.RMB 10 / barrel。

On the news, the Red Sea crisis continues to ferment。Yesterday, the Houthis attacked ships in the Red Sea, causing disturbances in maritime routes and more companies were forced to change their shipping routes, with news stimulating the crude oil market。There was also a Houthi shock on Monday, when a Norwegian-owned ship was attacked, and BP responded quickly, saying it had suspended all transit through the Red Sea and other shippers had followed suit.。

Washington has launched a multinational operation on Tuesday to secure commerce in the Red Sea region as rising risk factors on Red Sea routes have heightened concerns about continued disruptions to global trade。U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who is visiting Bahrain, home of the U.S. Navy's Middle East headquarters, said Britain, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain will all be involved in the Red Sea security operation.。The team, widely known in the media as a "task force," will conduct joint patrols in the southern Red Sea and the adjoining Gulf of Aden.。

For the US-led reaction, analysts see limited impact on the crude oil market。There are two reasons for this, one is that the U.S.-led naval mission aimed at easing Houthi attacks has so far failed to ease widespread concerns about safe passage in the Red Sea, where major maritime transport companies still choose to avoid the Red Sea amid tensions.。Second, since most of the Middle East's crude oil is exported through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea crisis itself has not dealt a substantial blow to the world's crude oil supply.。

Rob Thummel, managing director of Tortoise Capital, an energy investment firm in Kansas, said "events in the Red Sea are increasing geopolitical risk," and "this is driving oil prices higher as traders assess the likelihood of supply disruptions associated with increased geopolitical risk."。"

Middle East crude benchmark plunges Investors turn to focus on EIA crude inventories

The Middle East crude benchmark has hit its lowest level since 2022, weighing on oil prices, according to dealer data。Dealers said the fall in the Middle East crude oil price benchmark could cause Saudi Arabia, the world's top exporter, to cut crude oil terminal prices for the second month in a row, and if so, the effect of the Saudi cut would be affected。

Specifically, at Monday's close, spot Dubai crude oil and DME Oman crude oil futures fell to 46 cents and 65 cents a barrel above Dubai swaps, the lowest level since 2020.。Meanwhile, Murban crude futures recovered to 27 cents above the Dubai swap premium after briefly falling into negative territory last week。Notably, these price benchmarks will be used to price some 18 million barrels per day of oil exports from the Middle East and Russia, representing nearly 18 percent of global supply.。

An important reason for the decline in the crude oil price benchmark is Oman's rapid sell-off in the oil market.。Analysts at a trading firm in Singapore said the tender for this month's crude sales issued by the Oman Ministry of Energy last week spooked traders, who cut long and short positions in the Dubai spread and the Brent-Dubai spread, respectively, causing prices to plunge.。Separately, QatarEnergy also sold four shipments of crude oil shipped in February at a discount, the lowest level since 2020.。

In addition to the Oman sell-off, slowing demand for crude oil in Asia also has an impact on the crude benchmark.。Traders said refineries across Asia will undergo seasonal overhauls from March, which will reduce demand.。Some refineries in Japan have shut down, also hitting spot demand。At the same time, the crude oil market is also under pressure from Iran, the United States, Venezuela, Brazil and Guyana, and industry insiders say that there is "too much crude oil" from these countries.。

In addition to the sharp fall in the crude benchmark, a large number of data and inventory data from the United States may also have an impact on oil prices。

Baker Hughes rig count fell to 501 from 503 previously, data showed on Friday, indicating a slight decline in product and service consumption in the oil services industry.。In addition, according to data released on Tuesday, the United States to December 15 when API crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased 93.90,000 barrels, also a blow to the oil market。Later today, the United States will also announce EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 15.。Economists predict that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories will decrease by 228.30,000 barrels, a decrease of 425 from the previous value.80,000 barrels eased。