Global logistics companies have revealed to the media that they have begun planning for a possible Trump victory in November and the strategies needed to deal with any additional tariffs, with Mexico being a key import gateway to deal with the escalation of trade tariffs on China initiated by the Trump administration and continued during the Biden administration.。

Trump said in February that he was considering tariffs of 60 percent or more on Chinese goods and a uniform 10 percent tariff on all U.S. imports, possibly after winning the election.。In his latest interview on Monday, Trump took a tougher line, saying "I'm a strong supporter of tariffs" and hinting that more tariffs on foreign goods are likely if he wins the election.。

The Trump administration used authorizations under three trade laws to unilaterally impose tariffs without congressional approval.。Tariffs on a range of US imports currently range from 10% to 25%.。

DHL Asia CEO Nikki Frank said in an interview at the TPM conference in Long Beach, California, last week that if more tariffs were imposed, it would speed up the diversification of supply chains from China to other countries.。

Frank said: "I think this will accelerate the current de-risking and diversification movement from China to other countries.。He added that "a 60 percent tariff would make moving elsewhere more attractive."。"

He expects that any increase in tariffs during the new Trump term will cause trade to shift from China to Mexico to avoid tariffs.。The shift is already happening, with 15 percent of Chinese trade to the United States going through the Mexican border, due to Chinese companies setting up plants in Mexico or using Mexican ports.。

Tariff-dodging Chinese goods are generating profit gains for truck and rail companies, an opportunity for Union Pacific, the only first-tier rail company serving Mexico's six major gateways.。It also has links with Ferromex and Canadian Pacific Kansas City, two of the largest rail companies operating in Mexico.。

Beth White, president of Union Pacific, said of its Mexican operations in an interview on the sidelines of the TPM conference: "The potential for us is huge.。As people really rethink their supply chains, say they'd rather put these things closer to home and invest in Mexico for growth。We have the advantage to do that.。Mexico is an important part of our business and we are very excited about taking advantage of the near-shore outsourcing opportunities that Mexico continues to invest in。"

Paul Brahir, vice president of container shipping and multimodal transport at ITS Logistics, said a huge shift is taking place as U.S. companies see Mexican ports as the gateway of the future.。

"We have had some very good ongoing discussions with some very forward-looking customers who are using ocean shipping to get around Trump's tariffs, so I think the future is going to be exporting from both the East and the West to Mexico," he said in an interview.。"

Critics of the tariffs, on the other hand, warn that increasing them would have broad economic implications.。The Trump tariffs, imposed under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, still apply to Chinese goods, and the Biden administration review, scheduled to be completed by the end of 2023, has been extended until May 31.。

"If we put a 60 percent tariff on any country, especially our big trading partner, China, I think it would be an economic disaster," said Peter Bukwa, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group.。"

Critics have also warned that consumers will suffer the effects of inflation, which, however, did not exceed historical averages during the Trump administration and the imposition of tariffs.。

S & P Global study shows China's share of product imports falling after Trump administration tariffs。

"Their share of the U.S. market, which started at 18 percent, has now gone down to about 11 percent, and that's with the 30 percent tariff," Rogers said.。"So a 60 percent tariff could lead to another round of transformation."。Now the winners are partly Mexico, but also ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and other major countries。If there is a new round of tariffs, Mexico should benefit, but it won't be the only one。"