The Week Ahead: Focus on Monetary Policy Decisions of the RBA and the BoE
The comments of members of the Federal Open Market Committee, China's economic indicators, and key statistical data from Germany and Japan will attract the attention of investors in the coming week.
Key points:
- Fed spokesman, U.S. labor market data and Michigan consumer sentiment data will affect the Fed's interest rate trend.
- Bank of England and RBA to make monetary policy decisions.
- Services PMIs in China and Europe also need attention.
Dollars
The initial application for unemployment benefits in the United States as of May 4th will affect the demand for purchasing the US dollar. After the US employment report, the upward trend of initial unemployment claims may support expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September.
Friday, May Michigan consumer confidence data is also worth investors' attention. Weak consumer confidence may indicate a downward trend in consumer spending. The decline in consumer spending may weaken demand driven inflation and allow the Federal Reserve to adopt a more moderate interest rate path. Investors must also consider information such as inflation expectations.
After the recent employment report, investors should also pay attention to the speeches of FOMC members. The views on inflation, economic outlook, and the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may cause market fluctuations. FOMC members Williams (Monday), Thomas Barkin (Monday), Neel Kashkari (Tuesday), Christopher Jefferson (Wednesday), Austan Goolsbee (Friday), Michelle Bowman (Friday), and Michael Barr (Friday) will give speeches.
Euro
On Monday, the purchasing managers' index data for Italy's service industry, as well as the final purchasing managers' indices for France, Germany, and Italy, will have an impact on the euro. The improvement in the service industry may affect investors' expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank in July. The service industry remains one of the focal points of concern for the European Central Bank, closely related to inflation.
On Tuesday, German factory orders and trade data will be released. The improvement of the demand environment will support the expected improvement of the macroeconomic environment. On Wednesday, Germany's industrial production data also needs attention.
As the market anticipates a rate cut by the European Central Bank in June, the minutes of the April ECB monetary policy meeting will attract investor interest on Friday.
However, investors should also pay attention to the comments of the European Central Bank throughout the week. European Central Bank Executive Board members Luis de Guindos (Thursday), Piero Cipollone (Thursday/Friday), Elizabeth McCaul (Thursday), and Frank Elderson will deliver speeches. The view on the interest rate path of the European Central Bank after June may cause market fluctuations.
Pound
On Tuesday, the retail sales monitoring by the UK Retail Joint Committee will affect buying demand for the pound. The upward trend in retail sales monitoring will indicate an improvement in consumer spending trends.
In addition, we also need to pay attention to housing price data on Tuesday. The improvement in the background of the real estate industry may increase consumer confidence and consumption trends. The Bank of England may control interest rate expectations for consumption cuts.
Although these data will attract attention, Thursday's Bank of England monetary policy decision will be crucial. Economists expect the Bank of England to maintain interest rates at 5.25%. The number of votes, minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, and speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will have an impact on the market.
On Friday, the UK's gross domestic product, trade, production data, and trade data will become the focus of attention. Gross domestic product and production data may have a greater impact on the interest rate path of the Bank of England.
As the Bank of England becomes the focus, investors should track its comments. Huw Pill, Chief Economist of the Bank of England (Thursday/Friday), and Sawati Dhingra, member of the Monetary Policy Committee, will deliver speeches.
Canadian Dollar
April Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data may affect the buying demand for the Canadian dollar on Tuesday.
On Friday, the Canadian government will release labor market data for April. The weak labor market conditions may affect wages and consumer confidence. The Bank of Canada may respond to weak labor market data by discussing interest rate cuts to maintain price stability.
AUD
The retail sales data for March in Australia will catch the attention of investors on Tuesday. The upward adjustment of preliminary data may affect the interest rate path of the Federal Reserve of Australia and the Australian dollar.
However, the interest rate decision of the Reserve of Australia will become the focus of investor attention. The unexpected growth in consumer and producer price inflation data has sparked speculation about the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates. The market expects the Federal Reserve of Australia to maintain its cash interest rate at 5.35%. In addition, investors will pay attention to the Federal Reserve of Australia's press conference.
Other statistical data includes building permits. However, the impact of these data is weaker than the decision of the Federal Reserve of Australia.
New Zealand Dollar
On Friday, investors need to pay attention to the Business NZ Purchasing Managers Index data for April in New Zealand. Lower than expected data may trigger expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve of New Zealand.
Japanese Yen
On Tuesday, Japan's Service Industry Purchasing Managers Index data will draw investors' attention to the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan hopes that the increase in employment, new orders, and prices in the service industry may drive inflationary pressures. The initial increase in numbers may affect investor demand for the Japanese yen.
On Friday, household expenditure data for Japan will be released. An unexpected increase in household spending may trigger investors' expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
In addition to numbers, investors should also closely monitor the comments of the Bank of Japan. The forward-looking guidance of monetary policy will affect the short-term trend of the Japanese yen.
China
On Monday, the China Caixin Service Industry Purchasing Managers Index is worth investors' attention. After exceeding expectations in the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, an unexpected increase in service industry activity may trigger expectations of demand for risky asset purchases.
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