On the morning of July 5th in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range, opening at $2,357.26 per ounce, touching a high of $2,364.65 per ounce, and reaching a low of $2,353.57 per ounce. It is currently trading near $2,356.47 per ounce.

Yesterday, the gold price was supported by the disappointing U.S. May ADP and initial jobless claims data. By the close of Thursday, spot gold had slightly fallen by 0.1%, closing at $2,353.14 per ounce, hovering near the two-week high it touched on the previous trading day. Due to the early closure for the U.S. Independence Day, spot gold maintained a small range of fluctuation.

In terms of data, the employment sub-index of the U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI released on Monday recorded 49.3, lower than the previous value of 51.1 and the expected value of 50. On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of job vacancies in the U.S. increased by 221,000 from the end of April to 8.14 million in May, while revising down the job vacancy data for the end of April.

On Wednesday, according to the ADP employment report released in the U.S., 150,000 private sector jobs were added in June, below the economists' expected increase of 160,000. During the week ending June 29, the number of initial jobless claims across states increased by 4,000 to 238,000 after seasonal adjustment. The weekly initial jobless claims for this year have risen to the upper limit of the range between 194,000 and 243,000. The data released on Wednesday also showed that the employment sub-index of the U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI recorded 46.1, lower than the previous value of 47.1 and the expected value of 49.

Today, the U.S. will also release the highly anticipated non-farm data.

Media reports suggest that the increase in non-farm employment in June is expected to slow down significantly from the previous month, with an expected increase of 190,000 in the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm employment for June, significantly lower than the previous value of 272,000. The U.S. unemployment rate in June is expected to remain at 4.0%. In terms of wage data, it is expected that the year-on-year increase in the average hourly wage in the U.S. in June will fall from 4.1% in the previous month to 3.9%, creating a new low since the pandemic. This is undoubtedly good news for the Federal Reserve.

Analysts say that after the divergence between the non-farm employment and unemployment figures last month, the market's concerns about the slowdown in the U.S. job market are growing. Therefore, attention should not only be paid to the increase or decrease in the number of jobs but also to the revision of last month's data. If the non-farm data is below expectations, the market will recognize the fact that the U.S. labor market is cooling down, which will lead to a resurgence of expectations for interest rate cuts and another surge in spot gold.

For this week's data, Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index, said that the weaker-than-expected ISM services report was a gift that the doves of the Federal Reserve had been waiting for before Friday's non-farm employment report. If the non-farm employment report confirms these seen cracks in the economy, then the price of gold is expected to rise to $2,400 per ounce.

Christopher Lewis, a market analyst at FX Empire, also believes that if the price of gold falls after the release of Friday's non-farm employment report, traders should regard it as a buying opportunity.

Today, the third-ranking Federal Reserve official, John C. Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York with permanent voting rights, will also make a speech. Given Williams' previous hawkish remarks, his attitude may also have an impact on the gold market.

On June 18, Williams said that the U.S. economy is "heading in the right direction," but he refused to disclose when to cut interest rates. He emphasized that any decision on the timing or extent of interest rate cuts this year will depend on new economic data; the recent inflation data is encouraging, and it is expected that price pressures will continue to ease.

Williams said in an interview at the time: "There are very good signs that supply and demand are coming into balance. I do indeed see a continuous anti-inflation process, and I expect inflation to continue to fall in the second half of this year and next year." He said that the U.S. economy and labor market are strong, but also pointed out that the pace of recruitment has slowed down.

Currently, according to the latest CME "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 8.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 27.4%, the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 66.5%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 6.1%.