Last Friday (January 19), Apple Vision Pro opened reservations in the United States。Pre-sale is extremely hot, Apple's official website opened 18 minutes after the pre-sale announced that the inventory was exhausted。

According to Apple's official website, there are three versions of Vision Pro available。The 256GB version sells for $3,499; the 512GB version sells for $3,699, and the 1TB version sells for $3,899。In addition, there are other accessories: storage bag for $199, spare battery for $199, additional headband for $99。

The first batch of Vision Pro pre-order orders will be delivered on February 2, but due to hot pre-sales, the online order delivery date for three models has been postponed to March。

In addition, the pre-sale boom has also brought fire to the secondary market and third-party channels such as purchasing agents, and these channels have already seen significant premiums.。It is reported that in the United States second-hand platform eBay, a user transfer 512GB version of Vision Pro, resale price than Apple's official website premium of up to 60%。In China, many platforms have appeared on behalf of the purchase of Vision Pro information, the purchase price ranges from 35,000-70,000 yuan, and even some people give a super high premium of 90,000 yuan.。

Guo Mingxuan: Vision Pro pre-orders have a key concern

For Vision Pro's pre-sale boom, well-known Apple analyst Guo Mingyi believes "in line with expectations"。

On January 22, Guo Mingxuan said in a post that, based on pre-order stocking levels and shipping times, it is estimated that Apple will sell 160,000 to 180,000 Vision Pro units in the first weekend after opening the Vision Pro pre-order, in line with expectations.。However, Guo pointed out that there is a key concern about Vision Pro pre-orders.。

Guo further said that, in line with previous forecasts, the opening of Vision Pro pre-order will sell out, each model shipment time in the hours after the opening of pre-order generally extended to 5-7 weeks.。But 48 hours after Vision Pro opens for pre-orders, the shipping time remains the same, which means that demand may quickly slip after core fans and heavy users open for pre-orders and actively place orders in Vision Pro.。In contrast, the iPhone in the open pre-order 24-48 hours, the shipment time will still be steadily delayed, that is, the new iPhone models in the open pre-order is finished after-sales, order demand continues to increase.。

Earlier, it was reported that Apple has been increasing production in recent months, including Lixun Precision and other suppliers are also working overtime, which also shows that the initial demand for Vision Pro should not be difficult to meet.。It is rumored that Apple's internal employees can still get a 25% discount on their Vision Pro, indicating that the supply side is not very tight。

According to Guo, Apple has a large user base of more than 1.2 billion active users, as long as about 0.007% of users are willing to open pre-order after purchase, can let Vision Pro open pre-order after sold out。So as of now, Vision Pro is still a very niche product.。

How well can Vision Pro sell?？

In predicting Vision Pro sales this year, there is not much difference between different agencies。

Guo Mingxuan predicts that it should not be difficult for Vision Pro to ship 500,000 units this year。However, demand has declined rapidly after pre-order sales, so it is still necessary to closely observe other market demand and application updates to determine changes in demand.。

Counterpoint, a global research firm, also predicts that Vision Pro should sell around 500,000 units this year.。Counterpoint senior analyst Harmeet Singh Walia said the first generation of the Vision Pro headset will primarily appeal to Apple's die-hard fans, developers, early adopters and enterprise users.。If Apple succeeds in increasing the supply of key components of the headset and the end market interest is higher than expected, a more optimistic situation may occur。

Harmeet Singh Walia believes that the consumer interest generated by Apple's entry will benefit the market for competitively priced headphones.。

Ahead of the pre-sale of Vision Pro, UBS analyst David Vogt expects Apple to ship 300,000-400,000 Vision Pro units this year, with revenue of $1.4 billion.。This figure is simply insignificant for Apple's hundreds of billions of dollars in annual sales revenue.。

But the iPhone sold just $1 billion in its first year, but then in the second year, iPhone revenue quadrupled and gradually swept the world, opening up a generation of mobile phone legends。

At WWDC in 2023, Cook said that iPhone will bring everyone into the era of mobile computing, while Vision Pro will bring everyone into the era of spatial computing.。It remains to be seen if the highly-anticipated Vision Pro can recreate the iPhone legend。