The market is waiting for Trump's fiscal spending scale, which will have a decisive impact on the trend of gold.
On November 12, Trump announced that Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, son of Indian immigrants, American entrepreneur and businessman, would co-lead the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).At this point,"Minister Ma" was officially included in the compilation.
After winning the election, Trump has now begun to form a cabinet.Different from the Biden administration, Trump's cabinet formation has obvious "small government" and "liberal" characteristics-a good example of the continuous attraction of business people to "join".Under such circumstances, the market generally expects that the new government will relax market supervision, encourage industrial and commercial development, and increase scientific and technological innovation.
As of now, Trump's offers are as follows:
Director of the CIA: John Ratcliffe (Director of National Intelligence in the previous administration)
U.S. Secretary of Defense: Pete Hagrid (previously served in the U.S. Army National Guard and currently serves as a Fox News TV host)
U.S. National Security Advisor: Mike Voltz (member of the House Armed Services Committee, Foreign Affairs Committee, and Standing Select Committee on Intelligence)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristy Noam (current governor of South Dakota)
Director of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeerdin (former Republican congressman of New York)
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations: Ellis Stefanick (Republican Representative)
U.S. Ambassador to Israel: Mike Huckabee (former governor of Arkansas)
Responsible for national border affairs: Tom Homan (former Acting Director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement)
White House Chief of Staff: Susie Wells (chief adviser to the Trump campaign)
White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy: Stephen Miller (Chief Immigration Advisor)
Deputy Chief of Staff for Personnel and Communications to the President: Taylor Budovic (long-time Trump adviser)
"Energy tsar": Doug Bergham (Trump ally)
One of the candidates for attorney general: Jay Clayton (former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)
One of the candidates for Treasury Secretary: Scott Besant (head of macro hedge fund Key Square Group)
Minister of Government Efficiency: Elon Musk (founder of Tesla) and Vivek Ramaswamy (son of Indian immigrants, American entrepreneur and businessman)
The reason why Trump's cabinet formation is so eye-catching is that the style of the cabinet members will greatly affect the new government's policy propositions, which are not necessarily consistent with Trump's campaign policies. For example:
During the election campaign, according to agency estimates, Trump's revision of TCJA and other policies under the neutral assumption alone would expand the U.S. government deficit by US$7.75 trillion in the next decade, more than twice that of Harris;
However, after forming the cabinet, potential Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said that he would reduce the government deficit from the current 7% of GDP to 3%:"In the next four years, tax cuts, deregulation and changes to the trading system will allow the United States to achieve a real GDP growth rate of 3%; and reduce the government deficit from the current 7% of GDP to 3%, and increase domestic oil and gas output by 3 million barrels per day, reduce inflation and dominate the global energy market."”
As a result, under the fierce reversal of expectations, international gold prices have fallen by more than 5% since the end of October.As of press time, the international gold price once fell below the US$2,600 mark, causing market panic.
Looking ahead, gold may continue to be under pressure from a strong dollar and strong bitcoin.Whether this bull market in gold will "stall halfway" or "completely misfire" will be an important consideration for the scale of future U.S. fiscal expansion.