In a recent speech at a luncheon hosted by the Economic Club of New York, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said the Fed has "beaten" (has won) inflation, but the pressure from the resilience of the U.S. consumer may keep inflation high for a longer period of time.。

It is worth noting that Moynihan's statement of the Fed's future policy rate in the interview, also using the wording of "higher for longer," is consistent with the official。In the Fed's September rate resolution, officials sharply revised the median interest rate for 2024 and 2025 by 50 basis points to 5.1% and 3.9%, while maintaining long-term interest rates at 2.5%。

In a press conference after the rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the (current) neutral rate could be higher than the long-term rate, largely due to the lagged effects of monetary policy.。On the concept of a neutral rate, he said that because the U.S. economy is performing strongly, a higher level of interest rates is needed - which is interpreted by the market as a hawkish performance。

Moynihan argues that the Fed needs to curb inflation by slowing the pace of spending by U.S. consumers - and according to the bank, the Fed's strategy has worked。Moynihan also said that if you try to achieve a soft landing... or close to the goal of a soft landing, then in general, when you look at the current data, they have won。

Data show that the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the United States fell in September, and fell short of expectations。Separately, U.S. one-year inflation expectations also hit a more than two-year low。U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has expressed growing confidence that the U.S. can control inflation without causing significant damage to the job market.。

Moynihan, who also gave a copy of his own data, said that at present, according to Bank of America's data on 68 million customer demand deposit accounts, consumer spending in the United States has shown signs of slowing down.。Specifically, Americans' current consumption levels are roughly equivalent to pre-epidemic consumption levels in 2016, 2017 and 2018。

Moynihan also said Bank of America expects the Fed to raise rates again in November, followed by three cuts in 2024 and four cuts in 2025.。He added that the US "will not have a recession" but that "GDP growth will be very slow in the second and third quarters of next year."。He said quarterly GDP would rebound to more than 1% by the end of next year.。

On September 20, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% -5.5% range, the highest level of interest rates in nearly 22 years。To combat high inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, and the current benchmark interest rate ceiling has exceeded its pre-Lehman peak and the highest range since before the dotcom bubble burst in March 2001.。

According to the latest data released, the U.S. CPI index rose 0 in August..6%, consistent with expectations, the data is 0 in July.2% increased by 0.4 percentage points; this led to a 3% year-on-year increase in the U.S. unadjusted CPI in August..7%, up from 3 in July.2% and market expectations of 3.6%, the second consecutive month of recovery。