On Tuesday, the market will focus on the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the US manufacturing and service industries. The service sector PMI accounts for over 70% of the US economy, with a more significant impact on the US dollar. The increase in service industry activity will further reduce people's expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2024.

On Wednesday, core durable goods orders in the United States will attract investor interest. Economists predict that the United States will avoid falling into recession. Better than expected data will indicate a strong US economy.

On Thursday, the United States will disclose its first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment benefits data. Unless there is an unexpected surge in unemployment benefits in the United States, GDP data may have a greater impact.

The personal income and expenditure report and consumer confidence index will be released on Friday. Against the backdrop of diminishing expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts, inflation data will attract investors' attention. Exceeding expectations will affect the interest rate path of the Federal Reserve.

There are no Federal Reserve spokespersons to pay attention to this week. The Federal Reserve entered a lockdown period on April 20th.

Euro

On Monday, Eurozone consumer confidence data will affect investors' purchasing power towards the euro/dollar. The improvement of consumer confidence will be consistent with the expected improvement in the macroeconomic environment.

On Tuesday, preliminary private sector PMI data from France, Germany, and the eurozone are worth investors' attention. The service sector PMI accounts for over 60% of the Eurozone economy, so its impact on the Euro/USD exchange rate will be greater. Investors should also consider other indicators including price, employment, and new orders.

On Wednesday, the German IFO Business Climate Index will attract the attention of investors. The upward trend will further support the expectation of improving the macroeconomic environment.

On Thursday, German GfK consumer climate data may indicate trends in consumer spending.

As people's bets on the ECB's interest rate cut in June increase, the ECB's comments and reports also need to be considered.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech on Monday. Members of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank, Edouard Fernandez Ballo (Tuesday), Piero Cipollone (Wednesday), Anneli Tuominen (Wednesday), Elizabeth McCaul (Wednesday), as well as Isabel Schnabel (Wednesday/Thursday) and Luis de Guindos (Friday), will give speeches.

The European Central Bank will release economic bulletins and consumer expectations survey results on Thursday and Friday.

Pound

On Tuesday, the UK private sector PMI will be released. The service sector PMI accounts for over 70% of the UK economy and has a significant impact on the pound. In the context of inconsistent signals from the Bank of England regarding interest rate cuts, investors should consider other indicators including prices.

In addition to data, attention also needs to be paid to the speech of the Bank of England. Jonathan Haskel, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, will give a speech on Tuesday.

Canadian Dollar

On Monday, housing sector data will have an impact on the Canadian dollar. The trend of housing prices affects consumer confidence and spending. If the data is lower than expected, it may indicate a decline in consumer spending and a weak inflation outlook.

The retail sales data for Wednesday and February also need attention. The trend of consumer spending affects demand driven inflation and the interest rate trajectory of the Bank of Canada.

AUD

On Monday, the inflation data for the first quarter of Australia will draw investors' attention to the Australian dollar and the Australian Federal Reserve. If the inflation data is higher than expected, it may further delay the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate cut plan.

On Friday, the market will focus on producer prices in Australia. In an environment of increasing demand, producers will raise prices and pass on costs to consumers.

Economic indicators from China may also affect the market.

New Zealand Dollar

This week, there are no economic indicators in New Zealand that will affect the New Zealand dollar. However, investors should consider economic indicators and their economic policy measures from China.

Japanese Yen

On Monday, the private sector PMI in early April may affect the yen and the Bank of Japan. The service sector PMI is against the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan views the service sector as a contributor to demand driven inflation.

On Friday, Tokyo's inflation data will also draw the attention of investors. Lower than expected data may prolong the period for the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates at zero.

However, the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision and press conference (Friday) will be the focus. The forward-looking guidance on exiting the zero interest rate environment plan will affect investors' purchasing power towards the Japanese yen. Investors should also pay attention to the discussion of market intervention by the central bank.

China aspect

On Monday, the People's Bank of China will set benchmark interest rates for one-year and five-year loans. Economists expect the People's Bank of China to maintain its benchmark loan interest rate unchanged. If the benchmark interest rate for loans is unexpectedly lowered, it may stimulate demand for purchasing commodity currencies, including the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar.