December 15 Asian market, spot gold first suppressed and then rose, currently down 0.05%, trading at 2,035.$23 / oz。

Fed's Resolution on Interest Rates Favors Fermentation U.S. Economic Soft Landing Basically Steady

On the news, the Fed's interest rate resolution continues to ferment。According to the FOMC Committee's December interest rate resolution, in addition to keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged, the SEP dot plot also forecasts multiple rounds of interest rate cuts in 2024, which is good for the gold market.。

In terms of economic growth, the Federal Reserve significantly revised its U.S. growth forecast for 2023, from 2.1% up to 2.6%, and slightly revised down the 2024 U.S. economic growth forecast 0.1 percentage point to 1.4%。

On the inflation front, the Fed significantly revised down its 2023 U.S. PCE inflation forecast and core PCE inflation forecast, both by 0.5 percentage points, respectively 2.8% and 3.2%; also slightly revised down the 2024 U.S. PCE inflation forecast and core PCE inflation forecast to 2.4% and 2.4%, the downward revision is 0.1-0.2 percentage points。The Fed's inflation target is 2%.。

In terms of interest rates that the market is concerned about, according to this dot plot, Fed officials have a median policy rate forecast of 4 for 2024..5-4.75%, corresponding to a cumulative rate cut of 75 BP; median interest rate forecast for 2025 at 3.5-3.75%, corresponding to a cumulative rate cut of 100BP during the year; median policy rate forecast for 2026 is 2.75-3%, still above 2.5% long-term interest rate level。

Fed's statement boosts market expectations of rate cut。The FedWatch Tool (FedWatch Tool) shows that the market currently expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March next year to be 71.4%。

For the specific time point of the interest rate cut, CITIC Securities chief economist Ming Ming said: "Although Powell did not have a clear statement on the specific time point of the interest rate cut or the decision threshold of the interest rate cut, but the reference to the interest rate meeting has been discussed the time point of the interest rate cut, and indicates that the United States in the event of a recession will seriously affect the decision to cut interest rates, reflecting that Powell's decision to cut interest rates will。"

Ping An Securities chief economist Zhong Zhengsheng, for his part, believes that the Fed is likely to discuss or even implement a rate cut in the second quarter of 2024, with specific drivers including: first, the U.S. economy or inflation is going down faster than expected。The second is a "precautionary rate cut."。The Fed may choose to cut interest rates appropriately to prevent the economy from cooling too quickly when signals of economic weakness increase, which is historically traceable。Third, avoid election interference.。The Fed will cut interest rates as soon as possible before the U.S. election at the end of 2024, which may be able to avoid interference with monetary policy independence to some extent.。

In addition, a series of data recently released by the United States also indicates that the fundamentals of a soft landing for the U.S. economy will not change.。

In terms of employment data, initial U.S. jobless claims for the week ending December 9 were 20.20,000, lower than expected and the previous value of 220,000; in terms of retail sales data, U.S. retail sales rose 0% month-on-month in November, according to U.S. retail sales data released yesterday..3%, higher than the expected and previous values of -0.10%; in terms of inflation data, the U.S. non-quarterly CPI grew at an annual rate of 3 in November..1%, in line with market expectations, successfully achieved two consecutive declines。

As for overseas central banks, both the ECB and the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged, and the easing of global inflation governance also created favorable conditions for gold to move up.。Everbright futures said, from the technical graphics trend, the last two days of the U.S. gold even up the strong, toward the December 4 high forward, a new round of up or has been opened, to look at the strong run。

Dow Global: Gold Continues to Record High in 2024, Short-Term Gold Price Range Volatility

Looking ahead to 2024, some market strategists believe that gold prices are likely to continue to hit new highs next year, given that gold has gained a relatively healthy market environment.。

George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at Dow Global Investment Consulting, said that despite the recent peak in gold prices, the market still has a lot of room to rise.。He said: "When gold finds momentum, no one knows how high gold prices will go, and next year we are likely to see new all-time highs.。"

In State Street's official forecast, George's team sees a 50 percent chance that gold will trade between $1,950 and $2,200 an ounce next year.。The company, meanwhile, sees a 30 percent chance of gold trading between $2,200 and $2,400 an ounce.。There is only a 20 percent chance that gold will trade between $1,800 and $1,950 an ounce, according to State Street.。

George believes that the rise in gold prices is related to safe-haven buying and continued central bank gold purchases。

First, two ongoing geo-conflicts will maintain safe-haven demand for gold。He also said an uncertain and "ugly" election year would also increase gold's safe-haven appeal.。Growing demand in India and other emerging markets will support physical gold。

Second, central banks' gold purchase plans will also exacerbate the shift in market patterns。For example, he said it makes sense to take profits when gold prices have exceeded $2,000 an ounce over the past five years, and I think that's part of the reason why gold prices may fall below $2,000 from time to time next year.。But at some point, I still think gold is going to get a foothold above $2,000.。He went on to say that for 14 years, the central bank has been very consistently buying 10 to 20 percent of annual demand.。This is huge support whenever there are signs of weakness in the gold price and I expect this trend to continue for many more years。

George stressed that any major sell-off in gold is expected to be bought relatively quickly amid global economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil.。"Historically, gold's promise to investors has been dual in nature.。Over time, not annually, but over time, gold can help improve the returns of a properly balanced portfolio。At all times, gold will reduce risk and volatility in a properly balanced portfolio。"I expect this dual promise of return and protection will attract new investors in 2024."。"

It's worth noting that while George is bullish on the gold market, he also added that he doesn't expect a breakout in the short term。He noted that while the Fed wants to cut rates next year, the question remains when to pull the trigger。He believes that in the short term, timing issues should keep gold prices in their current range。