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ASML Financial Results Leak Caused NVIDIA Stock Price Slumped

ASML's latest financial report was exposed in advance before the scheduled release date. The forecast for the following year is significantly lower than market expectations. Nvidia's stock price may be "excessive" to follow the decline.

According to reports, ASML's (ASML) latest financial report was exposed ahead of schedule, showing that its total net sales forecast for 2025 was lowered to 30-35 billion euros, lower than the market's expectation of 35.8 billion euros.

ASML CEO Fouquet pointed out that despite the continued strength of the artificial intelligence market, the slow recovery of other markets such as logic chips has led to weaker demand, especially under the influence of competitive wafer foundry dynamics, which has delayed the construction of some wafer fabs, thus affecting the demand for EUV equipment. This trend is expected to continue until 2025.

After the release of the financial report, ASML's stock price plummeted 16%, which also had a cascading impact on Nvidia (NVDA), whose stock price fell 4.7%. iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which tracks the semiconductor industry, also fell 5.2%.

Although ASML's financial report has raised market concerns about weak demand for semiconductor equipment, it is not bad news for Nvidia. ASML made it clear that AI-related demand remains strong, and the main problems are concentrated in the field of logic chips.

Analyst Pierre Ferragu noted that ASML's report showed a sharp slowdown in chip equipment orders, affected by Intel's reduced spending on chip equipment and China's overinvestment level. However, Nvidia's focus is on artificial intelligence (AI) and graphics processing units (GPUs), so this trend has limited impact on Nvidia.

Nvidia continues to emphasize that demand for its AI GPUs remains strong. The company said in a recent investor briefing that although supply has expanded significantly, "demand still exceeds supply." Nvidia's latest Blackwell GPU product orders are full, and if customers place an order today, the earliest delivery will be at the end of next year.

Nvidia's Blackwell AI server system has begun shipping. Dell Technologies announced that the PowerEdge XE9712 server based on Nvidia's GB200 NVL72 system is being sampled for some customers.

The NVL72 is the star product in Nvidia's Blackwell product line, equipped with 72 Blackwell GPUs, and each GB200 super chip connects two Blackwell GPUs with Nvidia Grace CPUs for efficient collaborative computing. The system's unprecedented computing density makes it a leader in AI computing.

The NVL72, which sells for about $3.8 million, is expected to be the main source of Nvidia's GB200 chip shipments, according to KeyBanc's report.

Although Nvidia's stock price fell on ASML's earnings report, the reaction seems excessive. Nvidia's AI GPU business is not directly related to ASML's logic chip equipment demand. ASML's report shows that AI demand remains strong, and Nvidia's AI product orders continue to exceed supply, showing its strong growth potential in future revenue.

For investors, this decline may be an overreaction of the market. Nvidia's long-term prospects remain optimistic and it maintains a strong image as a growth company.

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