Gold is not an interest-bearing asset, and higher US bond yields will severely hit gold prices.

No resignation, no legal, no discussion. Powell used four "no" words to force the new US president.

The 2024 U.S. election has finally come to an end, and Trump's victory in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has clouded the road.

Some analysts pointed out that Trump's election will not immediately change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but if the Republican Party controls the House and Senate, it may adjust economic forecasts and basic assumptions at the December policy meeting.

The October non-farm payrolls report showed that the number of new jobs was only 12,000, a new low since 2020, far below market expectations of 106,000.

The US PCE data for September increased by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. The core PCE annual growth rate was 2.7%, slightly higher than the expected 2.6%, mainly due to rising service prices, reflecting that inflationary pressure has not completely subsided.

The US released the September JOLTs job openings report and the CB consumer confidence report, showing a weak market.

The Federal Reserve released a national economic situation survey report (also known as the "Beige Book"). The report showed that U.S. economic activity remained stagnant from September to early October, and the number of corporate recruiters increased. The "Beige Book" affirmed the results of the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation, saying that inflationary pressures in the United States continue to ease. According to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation" The probability that the Fed will drop 25 basis points by November is 93% The probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged is 7%; The probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged by December is 2.1% The cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 32.6% The cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 65.4% The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 0%

The market has begun to judge the new market narrative in advance.

The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States has reached the highest level since August last year, and hurricanes and layoffs have seriously damaged the employment environment.

India's central bank to cut interest rates in December if food prices don't take any hit.

Fed easing may come harder than expected, heavy signal from Fed officials。Traders are betting that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates sharply by 50 basis points for the second time in November, as US inflation continues to cool and is close to the Fed's 2 per cent target, with interest rate futures contracts now reflecting a 54 per cent chance of a 50 basis point cut in November.。It is worth noting that the Fed "cut interest rates by another 50 basis points" is expected to heat up at the same time, the European Central Bank may also open aggressive interest rate cuts, may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in December。

Inflationary pressures have fallen sharply in Switzerland, says Jordan, and the SNB is ready to cut rates again.

sino-us economic working group holds fifth meeting beijing, september 19-20。China and the United States communicate on macroeconomic situation and policies, global challenges and other issues。The Chinese side expressed its solemn concern over the imposition of tariffs by the United States on China, restrictions on investment in China, Russian-related sanctions and the impact on the interests of Chinese enterprises, and the two sides agreed to continue to maintain communication.。At a critical point in time for the Fed to open its first rate cut in four years, the U.S. and China can sit down and talk face-to-face to help guard against risks。

The Federal Reserve one-time interest rate cut of 50 basis points, in fact, behind the hidden two main reasons, respectively, “the curve of interest rate normalization” and “unemployment rate is expected to rise”.

A number of other countries are already on the brink of a rate cut cycle, most of them in Southeast Asia.

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on September 18, local time, that it would cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points。Down to 4.75% to 5.The level between 00% This is also the first time in 4 years that the Fed has cut interest rates。Almost every cycle of interest rate cuts in history has been accompanied by a recession in the U.S. economy.。

Republican candidate Donald Trump's view of the rate cut is on the negative side, arguing that either the economy is in very bad shape or it's political maneuvering. Democratic candidate Harris, on the other hand, welcomed the rate cut.

U.S. residential starts picked up significantly in August, balancing inventory levels with improving demand and also benefiting from lower borrowing costs.

The central bank's focus has shifted from "anti-inflation" to "job protection," and the logic of the market will change in the future.