Monetary Policy Summary
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In this era when the global economy is closely interconnected, the impact of central banks' policy moves on the market is of paramount importance. We will track the latest meeting minutes and policy direction of central banks in real time, and analyze the considerations and decision-making logic behind the monetary policy to help you better grasp the pulse of the global market.
RBNZ Cuts Rates By 50 Basis Points, NZD/USD Falls To Seven-Week Low
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its official cash rate by 50 basis points to 4.75% at its October policy meeting, in line with widespread market expectations.
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India's central bank leaves interest rates unchanged in October, expects to cut interest rates in December
India's central bank to cut interest rates in December if food prices don't take any hit.
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Swiss central bank cuts interest rate by 25 basis points with strong dovish wording
Inflationary pressures have fallen sharply in Switzerland, says Jordan, and the SNB is ready to cut rates again.
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Indonesia Bank Cuts Rates For First Time Since 2021, Seizing Fed's Easing Cycle
BI announced an interest rate cut to promote economic growth, lowering the policy rate by 0.25% for the first time since 2021.
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The Bank of Japan paused interest rate hikes in September, with the next rate hike possibly in December
If there is no rate hike in December, rate hikes will continue early next year as well.
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A look at the global central bank rate cut situation after the Fed cut interest rates
A number of other countries are already on the brink of a rate cut cycle, most of them in Southeast Asia.
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UK Core Inflation Rises to 3.6% in August, BoE on Hold for Rate Cut
On September 18, the UK inflation report attracted investors' attention as the Bank of England's interest rate decision was about to be announced.
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Fed's September interest rate decision: unanticipated rate cut comes at a major inflection point in policy
The central bank's focus has shifted from "anti-inflation" to "job protection," and the logic of the market will change in the future.
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ECB announces rate cuts! Asymmetric cuts to the three main interest rates
ECB announces rates, decides to cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points and cut the main refinancing and marginal lending rates by 60 basis points。The main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate and deposit mechanism rate after the interest rate cut are 3..65%, 3.90% and 3.50%。The ECB's asymmetric rate cut is aimed at ensuring that market conditions are manageable when tapering by adjusting deposit and loan spreads。
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The Bank of Japan believes that there is no need to raise interest rates next week and that the market should be "carefully monitored" at present
The Bank of Japan will certainly continue to raise interest rates, a temporary respite is not a long-term plan.
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Mixed Fortunes for U.S. ADP & Initial Jobless Claims; Will Today's Non-Farm Data Be the Decisive Blow?
Markets turned to non-farm payrolls data released later today to find more evidence of the extent of the September rate cut.
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Jackson Hole First Day: Three Officials Play Tai Chi Market Turn to Focus on Powell
All three officials declined to give a clear path to a rate cut on the market's concerns.
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Federal Reserve July Meeting Minutes: The Horn for Rate Cuts Has Already Blown
The document also suggests that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has become increasingly likely.
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U.S. July "terror data" ignited the market Na indicators to achieve six consecutive gains
This powerful data shattered expectations that the United States would enter a recession in the short term.
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US July PPI rises modestly September rate cut further
As soon as the PPI data came out, the market's confidence in the September rate cut went further.
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Global Markets Calm Awaiting U.S. July CPI
While the core may be up 10 bp month-on-month, these small fluctuations are not enough to make the Fed abandon broad expectations of a rate cut next month.
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Fed July 2024 Rate Decision: Continues Neutral Dove Stance, September Rate Cut on Agenda
No rate cut has yet arrived.
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Bank of Japan hikes rates by 15 basis points in July, may continue rate hikes in the medium term
After the negative interest rate was lifted, super-large banks and local banks raised the interest rate on demand deposits for the first time in 16 years, which will benefit Japanese household deposits.
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Australia's inflation eased in the second quarter and a rate hike is still possible in the future
The Reserve Bank of Australia has stated that if the inflation rate does not reach the target range of 2-3% by the end of 2025, it will act without hesitation.
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Nikkei 225 hit biggest drop in three years as US tech stocks sell off
Of the 33 industry segments on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, only four rose and the rest all fell.
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G7 Pioneer! The Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rates for the Second Consecutive Time, May Cut Twice More This Year
After this rate decision, the Canadian money market expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again in September with a probability of about 50%.
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Powell's first appearance after June CPI: no need to wait until inflation drops to 2% before cutting rates
Powell mentioned that while first-quarter economic data did not boost the Fed's confidence that inflation had fallen back to its 2 percent target, three second-quarter inflation reports, including last week's data, had boosted that confidence to some extent.
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Powell: Don't have to wait until inflation returns to 2% to cut rates
Soldiers and horses not moving, food and grass first.Of the $39 billion of 10-year Treasuries auctioned by the Treasury on Wednesday, overall auction results were solid and strong。
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September rate cut in sight! Powell admits U.S. employment has "slowed dramatically"
But he also pointedly noted that "rising inflation is not the only risk we face."A rate cut "too late or too little" could also "unduly weaken economic activity and employment," he said.
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Nikkei Reaches New High Powell Testifies in Congress Today
The market's expectations are reasonable.Looking at recent U.S. data, most are weakening.Friday's non-farm payrolls data was cold, employment rose, and most leading indicators of the labor market are cooling.
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Eurozone follows Canada with 25 basis point rate cut: global monetary cycle shift?
Many analysts expect that the Bank of England, which has been struggling with high-interest pressure for three years, will announce a rate cut in two weeks.
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Economic data mixed, BOJ rate hike uncertain increases
In May, Tokyo's core CPI (excluding fresh food) increased by 1.9% year-on-year, in line with market forecasts and higher than the 1.6% increase in April.
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Bank of Japan cuts bond purchases, hawkish tendencies strengthen again？
On Monday morning, the Bank of Japan reduced the number of purchases of Japanese government bonds in its regular purchasing operations, sending a hawkish signal to the market.
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U.S. April Manufacturing PMI: The Market Finally Awaits Bad News
More seriously, the more challenging business environment at present has prompted companies to start cutting wages, and if not for the pandemic period, the magnitude of this reduction has not been seen since the global financial crisis.
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BoJ Chief Cautious on Rate Hike, Officials Urge Gradual Increase
Iwata also mentioned the need for time to determine how to handle the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) held by the bank, rather than considering immediate disposal.
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"Cheap yen" era ushered in the end of the central bank announced the lifting of negative interest rate policy.
Analysts also said that the Bank of Japan's exit from negative interest rate policy is highly symbolic, but the actual impact on the economy is expected to be small.。
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Minutes of the Fed's January 2024 meeting: risks of premature rate cuts still need to be closely observed data
The Committee does not expect a reduction in the interest rate target range to be appropriate until there is greater confidence that inflation will continue to fall back to the 2 per cent target。
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Provide "cardiotonic" for the economy! Japan's January export data exceeded expectations
On February 21, Japan's January export data was released, and exports increased by 11.9%, exceeding market expectations of 9.5%, imports fell 9.6%, with market expectations of a year-on-year decline of 8.7%。
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RBA February 2024 interest rate resolution: keeping interest rates unchanged does not rule out further rate hikes
RBA announces policy rate at 12-year high 4.35% unchanged, in line with market expectations, and suggests that a further slowdown in inflation will raise the threshold for further rate hikes, but does not rule out the possibility of further rate hikes。
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Bank of England January interest rate resolution: keep benchmark interest rate unchanged, hawkish language softened
The analysis said that the independent economist Dengera's push to immediately reduce borrowing costs sent a strong signal to financial markets that the central bank was moving closer to taking action.。
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Fed's January 2024 interest rate resolution: four consecutive hold-up March rate cuts expected to cool down
Surprisingly, at a press conference after the meeting, Fed Chairman Powell put out a hawk, saying that it would be inappropriate to lower the target range until there is greater confidence that inflation continues to move towards 2%
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ECB leaves three key interest rates unchanged, reiterates to keep interest rates high
ECB reiterates it will keep interest rates high "long enough" to keep inflation on target。
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The "last negative interest rate samurai" continues to hold back the Nikkei index hit a new high in nearly 34 years.
On January 23, the world's "last negative interest rate samurai," the Bank of Japan, concluded a two-day monetary policy meeting.。The bank decided to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy and cut its inflation forecast for the next fiscal year.。
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U.S. December ADP employment data released: services contribute significantly to the number of jobs more than expected
U.S. Service Employment Grows 15 in December.50,000, contributing significantly to ADP's employment surge。
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Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate meeting agenda, latest interest rates, policy path, meeting review, inflation trend (2025)
What is the path for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025? How much will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2025? What should investors pay attention to after interest rate cuts? What did the Fed's policy meeting reveal?
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Want to return to the main line of profit byte beat in the game industry "big retreat"
After six years of ups and downs, ByteDance's upper echelons have lost their last patience with the light-year.。
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Fed's November Beige Book on the State of the Economy: Economic Outlook May Worsen, Price Prices Basically Slow Down
The U.S. economy is approaching what most economists previously thought impossible: a return to pre-epidemic normal levels of inflation in the absence of a recession or even significant economic weakness, a so-called soft landing.。
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The "last mile" of overall inflation cooling and interest rate hikes in the United States in October may have been completed.
The lower inflation data, overlaid with a cooling job market, suggests that both key data on the U.S. economy are moving in the direction the Fed expects.。
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The United States was cut by Moody's rating outlook after March Yellen once again "difficult to calm"
At the time, Yellen made almost identical remarks: U.S. Treasuries remain the safest liquid asset in the world because the U.S. economy is fundamentally "strong."。Unexpectedly, just three months later, Moody's also announced a downgrade of the U.S. rating outlook, which appeared to be a silent counterattack to the U.S. Treasury.。
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When does the Fed cut interest rates?？Damo and Goldman Sachs are already quarrelling!
For now, Goldman Sachs' forecast is closer to the Fed's expectations than the two。
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Fed officials continue to hawk gold day under pressure to fall back
Perhaps feeling the market's overly optimistic mood after the Fed announced a pause in rate hikes in November, Fed officials have been pouring cold water on the market these days。
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RBA restarts rate hike process in November: OCR raised to 4.35% is the highest level in 12 years
According to the RBA, the CPI index will reach 3 by the end of 2024..5% or so and fall further to the top of the 2% to 3% target range by the end of 2025。
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Fed's November interest rate decision: continue to hold back the door to rate hikes may be closed
The Fed's latest interest rate decision has been out, two consecutive holds, giving us reason to believe that the Fed may have closed the door to raising interest rates.。
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Fed's November interest rate decision outlook: continue to pause rate hikes, policy window or enter observation period
This may also suggest that the Fed can start from the policy operation period, officially enter the policy observation period, slowly reduce its intervention in the money market, and better play the role of camera decision-making, let it play.。
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Bank of Japan paves way for exit from YCC to allow long-term interest rates to rise to 1%
If you look at the policy continuity of the Bank of Japan alone, everything the bank is doing now is showing the market that the Bank of Japan will gradually withdraw from this protracted YCC operation, paving the way for the subsequent normalization of monetary policy.。
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The speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives will elect a new speaker as soon as today to deal with issues such as aid to Israel.
Currently, the remaining eight MPs say they are all trying to win the Speaker's seat, but the gap between the eight candidates is not wide。While Emmer, the No. 3 Republican in the House, may have a slight advantage after McCarthy backed his candidacy, that advantage also did not form an overwhelming momentum。
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Fed's October Beige Book on Economic Conditions Announces Expectations to Continue to Suspend Interest Rates at Month-End Meeting
As of press time, according to CME Fed Watch, the bank's probability of keeping monetary policy unchanged at its end-of-month meeting has reached 93.9%。
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US September retail sales data burst market highly concerned about Thursday Powell's speech
October 31 to November 1, the Fed's FOMC is about to hold its next meeting on interest rates, and Thursday's speech will be the Fed chairman's last speech before entering the silent period, with the market paying close attention.。
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U.S. debt suffered a historical level sell-off Fed doves began to calm the market.
To ease market anxiety, Bostic said: "I think our policy rate has reached a sufficiently restrictive position to push inflation back to 2 percent.。"
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US non-farm payrolls in September still beat expectations under strike tide
Experts' hawkish view of the future is supported by market pricing - after the data was released, the relevant markets bet that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates again during the year has increased。For now, the market prefers that the Fed will raise interest rates again at its December meeting。
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Xiao Mo: Three major risks will pose a challenge to U.S. stocks
With investors cash-strapped and benchmark interest rates high, investors may shift to holding more liquid assets, such as cash。
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Bank of America CEO: US economic soft landing has been successful, another rate hike expected in November
Moynihan said that if you try to achieve a soft landing... or close to the goal of a soft landing, then in general, when you look at the current data, they have won。
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Moody's warns of government shutdown, three major U.S. AAA credits may be downgraded across the board？
As a result, the contradictions of this shutdown crisis have gradually evolved from a tussle between the federal government and Congress to a tussle between Democrats and Republicans, a covert rivalry between Biden and Trump, and a dispute between far-right forces within the Republican Party and House President McCarthy.。
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Fed's September interest rate decision: no surprises in suspending rate hikes Long-term rates may be higher
And this revision of the long-term interest rate undoubtedly confirms this view of the market, which is one of the most critical messages revealed in this rate resolution。
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The debt crisis haunts the U.S. government and the money shortage.？
For now, Wall Street is optimistic about the U.S. government's shutdown crisis.。
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Economists: market misinterpretation of U.S. July PCE data rate hike cycle may be over
Therefore, for the year-on-year data, the inflation data for the same period last year will have a significant impact on the trend of the PCE data released this time, which is also known as the "base effect."。
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Fed's Beige Book on the State of the Economy: Placebo eagerly awaited by markets
At this point in time, the market desperately needs a "placebo" to stabilize the market's dovish expectations, and this brown book on the state of the economy is just right.。
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The September meeting is just around the corner. The Fed's well-known hawks began to dove. In July, they voted for a rate hike.
Waller said: "The data we got last week is very good, the key is that it allows us to proceed with caution.。We can sit there and wait for the data and see if the situation continues。"
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U.S. August ADP plunges 45% month-on-month, rate hike cycle really ends？
Arguably, if the next crucial U.S. non-farm payrolls report and PCE data satisfy the Fed。This protracted cycle of rate hikes may really be over。
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2023 Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting: Powell still not satisfied with current inflation levels September rate hike expectations rise
The Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting is held once a year and attracts the world's leading central bankers, finance officials, economists, leading academics, and financial media to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy.。
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U.S. debt may return to pre-financial crisis yields after the end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle.
Last week, a strategist at Bank of America warned investors to be prepared for a 5% return in U.S. bond yields, a return to the pre-financial crisis U.S. bond market.。
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Minutes of Fed's July meeting released: under restrictive interest rates, a realistic version of the Big Short is about to play out？
On Tuesday, Kiyosaki said in a television interview, "Buffett is sitting on the sidelines with $147 billion, and his money is on short-term U.S. Treasuries.。Big Short's Michael Bury is now shorting the market。"
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July "Terror Data" Better Than Expected Fed Officials Emergency Falcon
US consumer spending performed well in July, leading to better-than-expected "horror data"。But for this "good news," the market is not happy。
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PPI and CPI have "deviated" from the future of U.S. inflation.？
The divergence of future core CPI and overall CPI in the United States seems to be recognized by more and more institutions.。
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Federal Government Faces Shutdown U.S. Debt Sells Fitch Really Bet on Treasure This Time？
Fitch's downgrade of the default rating of long-term U.S. foreign currency issuers is proving to be pulling the U.S. federal government back into the spotlight。
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Europe, the United States and the United Kingdom this round of monetary policy review & outlook: continue to raise interest rates or pause the pace？
In the wake of this protracted and inflationary battle around the world, the policy environment facing central banks has changed a lot from before the rate hike cycle began.。
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The U.S. job market is so hot that even Fitch's downgrade of the country's credit rating can't stop it.
Despite many efforts, inflationary pressures, like the sword of Damocles, still hang over the U.S. economy, suffocating。
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2023Q2 U.S. GDP data interpretation: the probability of a soft landing is gradually rising
Investment was the biggest bright spot in U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter, with the data sub-item up 5.7%, contribution to GDP of 0.97 percentage points。
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The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled and may continue to raise rates in the fourth quarter.
As the Fed's rate hike has been almost completely priced by the market, until the policy conference before the Fed released a positive, the rate hike has hardly caused any waves in the market。
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Fed meeting outlook: inflation governance "last mile" in the end or not to finish？
At 14: 00 EST on July 26, the Fed will announce its July rate decision。In a policy news conference to follow, Powell will reveal more about the。
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U.S. prices continue to cool, big investment banks and investors are starting to make a group bet.
Faced with successive declines in inflation data and weak economic activity, major banks have begun to step up their efforts to explore the possibility of a soft landing for the Fed's economy。
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U.S. June CPI data released: a dovish "alternative" victory
Before the data was released, there were predictions that the CPI data would slow sharply, but the eventual slowdown in this inflation data was still unexpected。
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Spot gold day narrow shock Fed "three hands" to PCE data set KPI
Following the minutes of the Fed's ultra-hawkish monetary policy meeting, the "doves" of officials also appeared insignificant.。
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After yesterday's shock, U.S. stocks are facing a "panic moment" again today.？
Good news may turn into bad news at any time, and today's U.S. stocks may have another "moment of panic."。
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The market made a big mistake in looking at the Fed's determination to fight inflation.
Of the many bets, the only thing the market is betting on right is the Fed's determination to fight inflation。
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The US economy may be falling into a "PMI trap."
On the one hand, the continuation of economic uncertainty in the United States has hindered the distribution of new orders, which has dragged down the PMI index.。On the other hand, when the PMI index falls, it will bring relatively pessimistic economic expectations to the market, affecting future PMI data.。
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The US can really manage inflation successfully while avoiding a recession？
Although the manufacturing data is not satisfactory, but driven by the services PMI data, the U.S. Markit composite PMI in June still recorded 53.0, which fell short of expectations and previous values and hit a three-month low, but remained above the boom-bust line for the fifth consecutive month, indicating that U.S. business activity remains expansionary overall.。
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The Fed pressed the pause button as scheduled, but the three major U.S. stock indexes dived collectively during the session.？
On June 14, local time, the Federal Reserve announced its June interest rate decision as scheduled, in line with market expectations。After a 15-month cycle of rate hikes, the Fed finally hit the pause button。
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U.S. CPI fell more than expected in May, but Powell at the conference table couldn't laugh.
On June 13, local time, the U.S. Department of Labor released CPI data for May。According to the published data, the US CPI in May increased from 4 in April..9% fell more than expected to 4%, the 11th consecutive decline, hitting a new low since March 2021。
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Last night's initial request directly sent the S & P 500 to a technical bull market.
U.S. stocks closed last night, with the S & P 500 up 0.62% to 4293.93 points, up more than 20% from last October's low, stepping into a technical bull market in one fell swoop。
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Why the United States is fundamentally different from Australia and Canada in the same interest rate hike？
On June 7, the Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision, raising the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%。Prior to this, the Bank of Canada has twice suspended interest rate hikes, and after this resumption of interest rate hikes, the level of interest rates in Canada has reached the highest level since 2001。
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What signal did the Fed's "quasi-second-in-command" reveal by the rare release of pigeons?？
On May 31, the United States has released May Chicago PMI data and April JOLTs job vacancies data, the Federal Reserve also released a brown book on economic conditions, according to the report shows that the jurisdictions of future economic growth is expected to decline slightly。In response, Fed Vice Chairman nominee Jefferson expressed his views in his speech。
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Rate cut hopeless？Minutes of May Fed policy meeting: Upcoming information needs to be closely monitored
On May 24, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).。According to the minutes, Fed policymakers have disagreed on the future of monetary policy, and some members have already raised the possibility of suspending interest rate hikes at their next meeting。
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Careful! Powell closed-door meeting to avoid talking about monetary policy Kashkari called the June vote "a close call."
On the evening of May 23, the United States announced the initial Markit services and manufacturing PMI for May.。Among them, the initial value of Markit services PMI in May was 55.1, higher than expected, above the boom-bust line, while the initial Markit manufacturing PMI recorded a decline in May, missing market expectations.。
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Monetary tightening is linked to the intensity of monetary policy - a shift in policy perspective from Powell's latest speech
On Friday, May 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and former Chairman Ben Bernanke attended a monetary policy seminar, the "Thomas Laubach Research Conference."。At the meeting, Powell revisited the current banking crisis and monetary policy, while Bernanke, who left office in 2014, also shared his views on the current economic situation。
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Debt ceiling "final battle" hit spot gold stopped falling and rebounded Fed officials put the hawk does not work.？
The U.S. debt ceiling crisis has been slow to resolve, and concerns about the risk of a U.S. debt default continue to provide safe-haven support for gold prices。On the first trading day of the week, gold prices stopped falling and recovered, stopping their daily line for three consecutive years.。
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Biden roll call! The Fed's new second-in-command is on fire, and monetary policy is quietly changing.？
On May 12, the White House announced that U.S. President Joseph Biden had nominated Philip Jefferson, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, as vice chairman of the committee, and if confirmed by the U.S. Senate, he would become the second African-American to serve as the Fed's second-in-command.。
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Witness history？Japan's ten-year easing may meet the inflection point The probability of the Fed suspending interest rate hikes in June is more than 90%.
Human joys and sorrows vary, with Japan likely to tighten monetary policy slightly at a time when the U.S. is hoping to pause its year-long aggressive rate hike cycle in June and open a rate cut window by the end of the year.。
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U.S. March non-farm payrolls data release rate hike expectations rise again
On the evening of April 7, the U.S. Labor Office announced the U.S. non-farm payrolls and the U.S. unemployment rate for March.。U.S. nonfarm payrolls up 23 in March, data shows.60,000, expected to increase by 230,000; revised up in February to an increase of 32.60,000。Unemployment rate drops to 3.5%。
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Endless debate! The "pigeon-eagle dispute" is gradually heating up, and the policy inflection point may come.？
On the evening of April 6, Beijing time, the United States announced the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 1.。Data shows that the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States last week was 22.80,000, the highest since the week of December 3, 2022。
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